I disagree with the first assertion but agree with the second. If the GOP pulls something crazy during the nominating convention and doesn’t give it to Trump, they’re going to lose in a landslide to a split ticket.
Sad thing is, GOP would rather lose to Hillary than allow Trump to win.
Here's the differences between the Democrat Party, Conservative Republicans, and the Republican establishment: A loss for Democrats is a terrible thing. For conservative Republicans, a loss is a terrible thing. But for the Republican establishment, a loss is not really a terrible thing at all. It maintains the status quo, which is Democrats being in power and Republican "moderates" supporting the democrat agenda while wimping out on everything they campaigned and raised money to fight against. That is why the GOP establishment would rather Hillary win than have Trump, Cruz, or Carson. A Democrat win is still a win for the GOPe.