Posted on 12/08/2015 7:10:26 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
If all 68 percent of those "Trump or bust" likely Republican voters are telling the truth about sticking with him if he runs third-party, we're looking at something like 17-20 percent of the total vote next November going to Trump, way more than enough to wreck the GOP's chances. Even if half of them end up deciding to either stay home or vote for the Republican nominee in the interest of beating Hillary, that's still upwards of 10 percent breaking away.
There are X factors, though. One X factor is Trump's dynamism on the stump. If he campaigned aggressively as a third-party nominee, with the sort of frequent big rallies he's doing now, the contrast with Hillary's "low energy" campaign and whatever the GOP nominee is doing might drive extra votes to him. I wouldn't put it past him to get 25 percent, especially if he finally opens his wallet to buy ads and build a national organization.
But that'll be countered by another X factor: It's hard to predict how much free airtime the media will continue to give him during a general election. Letting him on the air to ramble for half an hour about barring Muslims is a perfectly sensible thing for MSNBC to do right now, when the GOP is at each other's throats. The more he talks, the more divided their enemy is.
If he went third-party, they'd have to think more carefully. I assume they'd double down early in the general election campaign by giving him a blank check to talk on the air about whatever he likes, hoping to drive attention away from the GOP nominee and towards Trump in the name of splitting the vote. If he really took off, though, and began to threaten Hillary, they'd cut him off.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Trump is Number 1 in my book but I still see a lot of powerful influential people overtly and covertly trying to ram Jeb Bush down our throats. Let’s not forget how Mitt Romney weaseled his way into the nomination. I’m not letting my guard down with Jeb.
“Nobody is stupid enough to vote for Yeb!, are they?”
No, and Bush is a non-factor anyway.
“Islam needs to leave the USA today, now... Go Trump!”
And you think he’s going to make that happen?
He better start thinking this way—the GOP/White House DNC will force Trump out. He is a “Dead Man Walking” now that he isnulted the House of Saud. He will not be a Ross Perot—but remember when Pat Bucannon won new Hampshire and Pat gave his speach “Ride to the sound of the guns”? he was finished. They will take out Trump—one way or another— watch—he will be gone by New Years.
I would vote Trump in any circumstance.
“Not only Hillary. What about Chuck Schumer? Trumpâs shenanigans will probably cause so many âPub losses in the U. S. Senate that Schumer will be the next majority leader.”
Yep. The dems are loving this.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/08/dems_victory_plan_paint_the_gop_trump.html#2
If he runs third party, we are royally screwed. Would be better for him and Cruz to work together to strategist a path for one of them...
“When 36% of registered Republicans nationally say there is no way they will vote for him? He has no chance.”
64% is considered a landslide.
It has become very clear that the GOPE Party would rather Mrs. B-J Clinton win than Donald Trump ... as much as to kill the idea that any person who is not a “professional politician” should even be allowed to run in a national election, as much as to crush conservative principles and to maintain the status quo.
For the democrats, yes. You're dividing the GOP vote, not the entire electorate.
Not seeing the evidence of that, consider Jeb's level of support is sitting between 3-5%. Jeb is no longer even a blip on the radar screen.
I hope that Trump is not the same.
“You’re dividing the GOP vote, not the entire electorate.”
Then he gets a plurality during the primaries.
But 20% isn’t, and that’s all he would get if all Democrats and 36% of the Republicans don’t vote for him.
??
We're talking about a third-party run.
I checked your previous posts to find out where you are coming from. I found this:
“Trumpâs not just a Democrat, heâs a liberal Democrat. He is so far to the left of Romney that he fits in better with Sanders and Obama than any of the GOP candidates.”
“fits in better...”
That would require an ideologue. Trump is a businessman, not an ideologue. A successful businessman cannot afford to be an ideologue. Politicians can be.
Setting aside social issues, I have heard Trump talk for many, many years on the economy, trade, etc. and he says the same thing now that he said back then. Certainly you must have seen the twenty-five year old Oprah interview that sounds like he did the interview yesterday.
Some posters here insist on posting a picture of Trump with the Clintons. They refuse to post the pictures of Trump with Reagan.
No. That is how primaries work when there are more than two candidates.
I think we’re talking about two different scenarios, but.. OK.
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