Posted on 12/07/2015 9:54:00 AM PST by Isara
Sen. Ted Cruz has surged past Donald Trump in Iowa with less than two months to go before the nation's first nominating contest, giving Cruz his first lead in any early voting state during the campaign.
A Monmouth University poll said Cruz has 24 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, a 14-point jump for the Texas senator since October.
Trump won 19 percent in the poll, giving Cruz a 5 percent lead that's outside the margin of error.
Much of Cruz's support stems from evangelical Iowans who back the conservative senator 30 percent to Trump's 18 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson previously led the GOP field in support among this coveted demographic, but now earns just 15 percent support among evangelicals, putting him behind Cruz, Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (16 percent).
Cruz also carries a substantial lead among voters affiliated with the Tea Party. The freshman senator earns 36 percent support compared to Trump (20 percent), Carson (17 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).
Cruz's rise can also be attributed, in part, to his recent endorsement from Iowa Rep. Steve King. Roughly 20 percent of Republicans in the Hawkeye State said King's support makes them more inclined to back Cruz come Feb. 1, including 7 percent who claim King's endorsement makes them "a lot more likely."
Rubio has met with some difficulties while trying to woo Tea Party supporters after his role in the 2013 Gang of Eight immigration bill, which proposed a 13-year pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States. While that bill damaged his reputation among the hard-line conservative movement, the Florida senator leads the GOP field among women in Iowa with 23 percent support.
That support helped keep Rubio in third place in the poll. He follows right behind Trump's 19 percent with 17 percent in the poll. Carson, who had a commanding lead in Iowa less than two months ago, has plummeted to 13 percent. At 6 percent support, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the only other Republican contender to poll above 5 percent.
According to the poll, Rubio is the most-liked Republican candidate in Iowa, as 70 percent of voters hold a positive view of the Florida senator. Cruz and Carson each boast a net-positive favorability rating of 67-19 percent, while Trump is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent. Bush, meanwhile, has a net-negative favorability rating of 38-45 percent.
The New-Jersey based survey of 425 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted between Dec. 3-6 and contains a margin of error plus or minus 4.8 percent.
I never have trolled anything.
You know who to ask.
I like Cruz! I also like Trump!
Rubio and Jeb are in until the Florida winner take all on March 15th. One will be left standing. Not worried what GOPe will do ie Cruz.
Well, then you and I would have very different strategies if we were running campaigns. Cuz if I’m Rubio’s manager, I’m doing everything I can to knock Trump out now, regardless of who has to be that vehicle. Jeb can be beaten, later. I’m sure Rubio’s guy thinks Cruz is easy-peasy later. But Trump ia a major threat, now.
Most of those “thousands” got there riding labor Union chartered buses, or had that point slipped by?
Yeah, I most definitely did mean it. He’s the man to dismantle the Federal Civil Service, from Department Heads to Floor Sweepers. That can be his job.
Trump is just winning. Just come on in the pool. The water is fine. :-)
LOL!
Chuckle!
For months you insisted that Ted Cruz was “stuck at 5%” and wasn’t going anywhere. I had reason to challenge you on plenty of Cruz threads about that. And now that the Cruz surge that we kept telling you about is here, you pretend it’s business as usual? You are just too funny.
We kept telling you that this race is a marathon not a sprint. It’s all about peaking at the right time. Cruz is up from the already high previous Monmouth University poll, so he is still rising. Plus it’s now reflected in other polls too, including the CNN poll today. I would probably have preferred Cruz to peak in January, but December would do. Cruz is going to win Iowa.
Chuckle chuckle. He’s down 13 after his “surge” and his comments tonight made him look, well, less than leader like. Cruz won’t win IA, now more than ever.
Ted Cruz is 5 points ahead of Trump in this Monmouth University poll, which actually polled mostly past caucus voters as against the CNN poll you quote, which took their sample largely from people who did not vote in past caucuses. I’ll take the Monmouth university poll thank you.
Be thant as it may, the point being, you kept insisting for months that Ted Cruz was going to be stuck at 5%. Your prediction has been woefully off target. Even your CNN poll you quoted has Ted Cruz at 20%. That is a wee bit higher than 5%, no?
I would challenge you to look at Trump's record (not his promises) and tell me what you see that makes Trump substantially different from the Clintons' and Obama's position (and Romney's).
I like Trump. I like Cruz. I THINK Trump has a better chance to win. Purely a hunch based on what I’ve seen so far.
I think not.And even if true, you would be voting largely for the status quo (if his record stands as evidence).
Both could be excellent presidents. In different ways.
Sorry, but I really don't see that in Trump. I think him to be wholly unqualified. He likes the 'big show' alright, but lacks substantially in ability and knowledge.
Donald Trump the Lonesome Rhodes of the 2016 campaign season.
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