Why Donald Trump’s big advantage among those without college degrees is important

The Washington Post ^ | December 4,2015 | Philip Bump

[Hojczyk]

On Friday, CNN/ORC released new poll data showing Donald Trump with his biggest lead in their 2016 polling -- which also gave him his highest polling average since he joined the race.

One big reason for that is that Trump has a massive advantage among those who don't have a college degree, as we noted in a graph

We can look at this as a microcosm of the 2016 election on the whole. Trump has consolidated a base of support; the establishment is fractured in its support for someone to stand up to him. This isn't a clean analogy, but it maps loosely. More than 40 percent of those without a degree in the CNN/ORC poll back Trump. Those with a degree can't make up their minds.

If that holds, or if Trump's grip on those without a degree strengthens, it's not good news for those hoping he's not the nominee. In 2012, turnout by those with or without a degree varied by state. In Iowa, 52 percent of Republican caucus-goers had college degrees, according to exit polling; in South Carolina, 47 percent did. The average across 20 states was about half-and-half. Thirteen states, though, had more people without college degrees turn out to vote than those with a degree.

[Principled]

why is that important?!

Well, it is not important if all you’re looking at is knowledge or wisdom, as you said.

How would you think about the article differently if it used % of population instead of percent of college grads/non grads?

There are many more non grads that grads. in the population. So Trump’s 40% is larger than they make it appear. His overall appeal is wayyyyy bigger than they want to allow people to think.

[tet68]

The thing is that while Trump may have a certain
percentage now, it will triple if he should become
the nominee.
He is not my choice but if he wins the primaries
I and others will have no problem voting for him.

Now my choice is CRUZ.

[amihow]

I agree with you. The common man is not common.

[amihow]

I agree with you. The common man is not common.

[Fresh Wind]

I have a college degree, and I never experienced any liberal brainwashing. Of course, my degree is in electrical engineering (and William F. Buckley was the speaker at my graduation).

I would not have any problem voting either for Cruz or Trump in the general, but my primary vote will almost certainly be meaningless (late primary state).

Virtually everyone I talk to (mostly non-degreed) are either Trump supporters, or at least open to his candidacy. I hear lots of people talking about Trump, and nobody is talking about Cruz. Hillary is mentioned often, and NEVER in positive terms.

[Pietro]

"How would you think about the article differently if it used % of population"

Actually there are two things I find abhorrent about these types of polls (and thanks for the reply btw)

1. Politics by demographics is a method of manipulation, ie, women think this or blacks think that. In fact, women think all sorts of ways as do blacks. Dividing us up into subgroups is a tool to direct the discussion and/or policy.

2. Polls themselves are deceptive, or rather can be used to steer public opinion. If 80% of the people think A then I must be nuts to think B, when really B is the more logical position. We see this all the time.

Naturally, it's important that leaders be able to judge the mood and wishes of the people but far too often polls are used as a means towards an end, that is not merely to gauge what people are thinking but rather to tell people how to think.

And that's why I think we give far too much credence to this twisted alchemy.

[SamAdams76]

Trying to paint Trump supporters as uneducated rubes while insinuating that intelligent and educated people would support someone like Jeb Bush is going to backfire on the establishment elite.

By the way, I work in an office where even the receptionist has a college degree and most of them are supporting Trump. This is in New York City.