Close enough
Posted on 11/30/2015 11:47:39 AM PST by VinL
Polls say Ted Cruz is gaining in Iowa, where two new ones show him reaching second place with around 20 percent of the vote.
But the same polls suggest he has a big challenge: He has very little support outside of a growing base of self-described "very conservative" voters.
"Very conservative" voters can propel Mr. Cruz to victory in Iowa, a caucus state, but according to exit poll data from 2008 and 2012, those types of voters represent a smaller share of the electorate in every primary state. To win, he will need to broaden his appeal, count on a divided field or hope to face a candidate with even more limited appeal.
In the most recent Quinnipiac survey of Iowa, he had a large 16-point lead among voters who described themselves as "very conservative." With 38 percent of their support, his strength there was greater than that of any other candidate in any ideological category. But he held the support of just 14 percent of “somewhat conservative†voters and a mere 6 percent of self-described moderate or liberal Republicans. The most recent national Quinnipiac survey showed the same basic breakdown in support for him.
Iowa is as good as it gets for a candidate like Mr. Cruz — "very conservative" voters represent 47 percent of the G.O.P. electorate there, according to exit polls in 2012. Self-described moderate and liberal voters represented just 17 percent of that electorate.
The electorate is so conservative because the delegate selection process begins with caucuses, which draw the most engaged, activist and conservative voters. In primary states, the electorate is very different. Across the Mississippi River in Wisconsin, moderate voters actually outnumber "very conservative" voters, 39 percent to 32 percent. There is not a single primary state where ......
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
"There's nothing in the middle of the road but yellow stripes and dead armadillos."
Poor Ted - has only the ‘very conservative’ vote in his corner
Yeb, he’s got the middle all locked up.
Hows ‘winning without the conservatives’ working out for him?
If only Southern States and other conservative states were winner take all.....Cruz could win. But since the moderate red states give all their points to the winner, that person will win and it will either be Trump or Rubio. Cruz will get a percentage of delegates from each Conservative states but not any from liberal red states because of his ranking in them. Nobody ever discusses this on here which is so WEIRD. I have written about it non stop for months now and all I get is........nothing. It’s like we don’t understand how the primary works and we are afraid to learn it. The primary is stacked against us because the conservative states decided not to do a winner takes all......why??????????????????????????????????
Close enough
Cruz is the top choice of conservatives, yes, but as the field narrows and Cruz continues to shine in the debates and as he starts to do well in the primaries in February and March, look for his name recognition to grow and his appeal to a broader audience increase.
I think you can imagine what it is.
After Ted Cruz spends some time on that debate stage against Hillary! “bride of satan” Clintoon, he’ll have all the supporters he’ll need to kick her fat evil butt.
I don’t reply because I’m not knowledgeable about the process. Yahoo wrote an article about Cruz-
“Cruz is also making sure that he understands the rules of this year’s nominating process better than his opponents -Noting that the RNC has sped up the 2016 primary schedule -almost two-thirds of Republican delegates will be allocated by March 22 ..Cruz spent August traveling across the South and strengthening his a regional turnout operation rather than camping out in Iowa or New Hampshire like everyone else.
Likewise, Team Cruz noticed early on that the RNC’s obscure rule No. 40 (b), which was rewritten in 2012, currently stipulates that a candidate cannot receive the nomination without first winning a majority of the delegates in eight separate states or territories. The territory part is crucial...
https://www.yahoo.com/politics/ted-cruz-has-been-plotting-1305876417003574.html
Cruz is on top on things, Naps- I’m sure he’s noted your valid points about the Gop-e’s effort to freeze out the conservatives, and I have to believe he has a plan to get the delegates.
Just because they keep saying things doesn’t make them true.
Ted Cruz has considerable strength with libertarians as well as the “growing conservative base”. He also seems to be almost imperceptibly evolving as a candidate.
The so called middle or moderates tend to be people who are less knowledgeable and less informed.
To moderate means to limit. Moderate means limited. They tend to be people with limited knowledge and limited commitment to principles. They go along to get along. They tend to be the least interested, the last the understand what is going on and the last to make up their minds. They are followers, not leaders.
The Cruz voters are the most knowledgeable and astute. They have already figured out what is going on. The moderates will follow sooner or later.
That is why the media continually attack Cruz. They are hoping the uninformed will not be able to figure it out by themselves and blindly accept whatever lies and distortions the media throws out.
Those moderates helped elect Romney...oh wait!
I am a conservative and I support Trump. Cruz is great, smart, conservative, great personal history but, but by nature I think Trump will is more suited to the Presidency.
Most importantly I don’t think Cruz can beat Hillary..
1.If Hillary was any other Dem it would be different, but it would be Cruz against her machine, Obama’s machine and the entire lying left. I don’t think Cruz could withstand the onslaught.
2.Cruz is “weak around the middle”, and will have a difficult time broadening his appeal. Trump’s message is similar to Cruz’s plus some. Trump has the ability to reach a much broader group of voters.
Any Republican nominee is going to be smeared. It is extremely difficult to survive the onslaught of lies the Democrats and the media use in a campaign.
The good thing is Cruz(and Trump) have already been hit with just about all the lies the media and the Democrats have.
The other Republicans candidates have not yet had to endure any media attacks. The media have supported them. Can you imagine if they actually had to face a relentless and hostile media? They would fold like a cheap suit.
We should wait and see how both Cruz and Trump do. See what the voters say. See how Cruz and Trump handle the media lies and smears.
I don’t see how conservatives support Trump, but I guess he says what they want to hear? I guess he has their support, but I sure don’t see how. I am from Iowa, I will attend my caucus, and I will vote for the most conservative candidate in the race.
It’s like this reporter hasn’t considered that people in the middle can be swayed to the right. The idea that can happen doesn’t even exist to him.
...The Cruz voters are the most knowledgeable and astute...
They are so knowledgeable they know that Cruz won’t be influenced by his wife, who is only on leave (not quit) from Goldman Sachs, who is a proponent and partial designer of the North American Union, and a former member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
They are so knowledgeable that they know that Cruz won’t be influenced in any way by his big donors, including the Club for Growth.
They are so astute that they overlook someone will challenge his very eligibility based on his birth in Canada.
They are so astute that they know he didn’t really mean his support of a huge increase in H-1B and his vote on TPP, and he was really fooled by colleagues.
I do not call that knowledgeable or astute. They are more than anxious to vet every other candidate but their own.
States holding their primaries prior to March 15th have to award delegates proportionately. States holding their primaries on or after March 15th are winner takes all. Its quite simple.
.
If the NYT is worried we celebrate.
Cruz on!
.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.