Ted Cruz Gathers Strength but Is Still Weak Around the Middle

NYTimes ^ | 11/30/15 | H. Cohn

[VinL]

Polls say Ted Cruz is gaining in Iowa, where two new ones show him reaching second place with around 20 percent of the vote.

But the same polls suggest he has a big challenge: He has very little support outside of a growing base of self-described "very conservative" voters.

"Very conservative" voters can propel Mr. Cruz to victory in Iowa, a caucus state, but according to exit poll data from 2008 and 2012, those types of voters represent a smaller share of the electorate in every primary state. To win, he will need to broaden his appeal, count on a divided field or hope to face a candidate with even more limited appeal.

In the most recent Quinnipiac survey of Iowa, he had a large 16-point lead among voters who described themselves as "very conservative." With 38 percent of their support, his strength there was greater than that of any other candidate in any ideological category. But he held the support of just 14 percent of “somewhat conservative” voters and a mere 6 percent of self-described moderate or liberal Republicans. The most recent national Quinnipiac survey showed the same basic breakdown in support for him.

Iowa is as good as it gets for a candidate like Mr. Cruz — "very conservative" voters represent 47 percent of the G.O.P. electorate there, according to exit polls in 2012. Self-described moderate and liberal voters represented just 17 percent of that electorate.

The electorate is so conservative because the delegate selection process begins with caucuses, which draw the most engaged, activist and conservative voters. In primary states, the electorate is very different. Across the Mississippi River in Wisconsin, moderate voters actually outnumber "very conservative" voters, 39 percent to 32 percent. There is not a single primary state where ......

[FourPeas]

"The big question for us 'is the republic actually dead?' and is Obama just the first caesar?" the artist said. "The welfare state and the Kardashians are the 21st century version of bread and circuses... Is this a democratic republic, or just a Washington D.C. TV show that is pretending to be one, while the Federal government laughs at the plebes... If Cruz is the candidate, we have a chance at restoring the republic."