Just as I didn’t get too worked up when this one poll showed Trump with 43%, neither am I going to get worked up when it shows him dropping 12 points. You need to look at the trend. Now, if other polls start showing a significant drop in Trump’s support, then a trend is developing, and it could indicate trouble for Trump.
What I find hilarious, however, is the reaction of many Trump supporters. Back when a number of polls were showing Carson closing on Trump, or even passing him, many Trumpkins would point to this Reuters poll to argue that the other polls were wrong and that Trump still had a big lead. To them, this was THE poll to believe. But now that this poll shows Trump losing support, the very same people that were posting the results of this poll in support of their position before are now blasting it as a biased poll that is just trying to create a false narrative of Trump fading.
If you are only going to accept the poll results that reinforce what you already believe and reject anything that is contrary to that belief, then you are going to be like the Romney supporters in the last race - completely shocked when the results are so different from what you think they should be...
You are correct, besides what goes up must go down. That’s just the way it is.
“to argue that the other polls were wrong and that Trump still had a big lead.”
Isn’t that what you Cruz supporters have been doing for months?
If you are only going to accept the poll results that reinforce what you already believe and reject anything that is contrary to that belief, then you are going to be like the Romney supporters in the last race - completely shocked when the results are so different from what you think they should be...
Just as one polls shows a candidate “losing” support has to be taken with a grain of salt, so does a poll that shows a candidate “soaring”. A better indicator is to take the average of all polls, state-by-state, nationally, rolling, internet, etc., and you, at least, have a gauge. is it 100%? Hardly.
One last thought...would any of the other candidates switch their position in this poll with Trump? In a NY second, they would.
I don’t disagree entirely. Elections have never failed to tighten. What’s fun is that you can drop 12, or whatever, and still lap the field. (Even when the COMPLEX is coming after you.) :)
Does this race hinge on Iowa? Hardly. I have definitely enjoyed the 5 Day Rolling Reuters, I confess. But, even that may tighten.