Why One Political Scientist Thinks Donald Trump Might Win

Vox ^ | 11-25-15 | Ezra Klein

[C. Edmund Wright]

In an exchange with Paul Krugman, political scientist Alan Abramowitz made one of the best cases I've heard for, as Krugman put it, "thinking the Trumpthinkable." At some point, Abramowitz argued, pundits need to admit that Trump has a good chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination.

But that remains a minority viewpoint. Nate Silver, for instance, published a piece arguing that analysts extrapolating forward from Trump's current (and impressively durable) poll lead are likely to be disappointed. So I called Abramowitz and asked him to walk me through his argument in more detail.

(snip)...... I saw what Nate Silver posted on FiveThirtyEight, and what he's saying is reasonable based on the history of these presidential nominations, but there are a couple things I think are different this year.

Silver makes the case that the polls at this point don't necessarily mean much, and you can get big swings in voter preferences in relatively short periods of time. And that's true. What I think is different is Republicans are tuned in to a much greater degree than they were at this point in previous nomination contests. You can see that in polling when you ask whether voters are paying attention, and you can see that in ratings for the debates. The idea that voters aren't tuned in yet and won't make up their minds till January or later may not prove as true as it has in the past.

[BlueNgold]

I still love your tag line GG2.

[Don Corleone]

Anybody taking bets that state reps at the convention will be, uh, informed that Mr. Trump is NOT to be nominated?

I've posted a similar opinion on several blogs. The convention is where it all happens and the GOPe is going to pull out all the stops to deny Trump a first vote win.

[BlueNgold]

I think the undercurrent of the article is to warn the lefties to start taking Trump seriously.

I posit he fears their oppo has been too focused on the FL twins.

[C. Edmund Wright]

author is a dirt bag, but he was not that way in this....he more or less just interviewed that other guy.

Maybe expand your mind and read it. You’ll be surprised. I was. It’s neither pro Trump nor anti Trump - it’s just a decent breakdown.

[C. Edmund Wright]

If Trump is nominated he will win YUGE!

That could happen - but this article was about chances of winning the nomination, not a commentary on the general.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Supporters of a certain candidate don’t actually READ THE DAD GUMMED article PING.

[C. Edmund Wright]

yeah well these guys are like weather forecasters, they call for sunshine all but they don’t stick their heads outside to see that it is raining

Actually that's not an accurate description of THIS article at all. They under sell Trump's chances, but they're pretty dad gummed accurate as to why he is running so strong and the nature of his appeal.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Ezra Klein was the organizer of JourNoList, the outfit made up of about 200-300 bloggers and reporters who were actively campaigning for 0bama. When Palin came on the scene, this same crew are the ones who spent the campaign trashing her, and her family, and even continued long after the election. Essentially, Klein is just another dirtbag.

Yes I know all of that, which makes it all the more remarkable that he's done this reasonable piece. May be his first one ever. I'm not sure how you missed that. Then again, commenting without reading leaves one open to miss the entire point.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Great post, #20, and I think I agree with every word.

What is interesting about this...is that this Abramoff guy, and even Klein, get this better than Brit Hume, Brett Baier, Charles Krauthammer and the WSJ editorial board, Jennifer Rubin, etc.

Normally when libs opine about Republican/conservative internal politics, they get it all wrong. These guys swerved into a lot of the truth. I think they undersell his chances a little bit - but I think many around here have gone off the deep end declaring the race over at this point. The truth is somewhere in between, and will play out in the next few months.

Thank you for actually reading with an open mind. And like you, I agree with much (but not all) of the reasoning in the piece - even as it’s written by someone I normally loathe.

[jennychase]

Trump is shrewd businessman. He will chew GOPe for breakfast. If they tried to mess with him, do you think he will sit quietly in his Trump tower. He will use media 24/7 to humiliate GOPe and their stooge unelectable for ever.

[Aria]

Yes he will chew them. Actually they’d be risking their demise I think.

But meanwhile they’re still trying crap. Probably their best shot is to knock him down in the polls - but no one believes their lies anymore so not sure how that could work.

[BobL]

They are getting VERY NERVOUS now. They need to cover their bases as they’re realizing the hold Trump has on his supporters.

They are starting to realize that the ONLY WAY Trump can lose now is by turning left on immigration, and he seems to know not tot do that.

[fingers_crossed]

What the pundits get wrong is this....(voters are much more tuned in now than they think. A combination of the Trump phenomenom, the publicy this has genererated including the controversies stirred up courtesy of the lame stream media(tyvm LSM)

A strong diverse interesting field of republican candidates

In your face, national and world events that have forced more voters(i.e citizens) to tune in more than they would normally. Making them clearly aware of all the dangers and challenges facing them and their families

[867V309]

Trump leading all the polls for 4.5 months, drawing crowds of thousands and he might win. I would never have come up with that one. :-)

Pure genius.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Well I don’t know if the “they” you are referring to are these guys.....I think the “they” you are talking about is the GOP E and Washington establishment.

Liberal columnists like this don’t suffer any career setback if they misread Republican tea leaves.

I wish people around here wouldn’t let their projected motive fantasies get in the way of the substance of a given article or writer, even if that writer is normally off base.

[minnesota_bound]

#2 and Clinton cannot even draw a crowd. She has to pay to bus in people.

[CatherineofAragon]

"author is a dirt bag, but he was not that way in this....he more or less just interviewed that other guy.

Maybe expand your mind and read it. You’ll be surprised. I was. It’s neither pro Trump nor anti Trump - it’s just a decent breakdown."

Which was the point all along.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

I have a large shredder near my desk.

I would run all my paper money through the shredder before I would give a plug nickel to those worth scumbags at the GOPe.

‘eff them and their mommas, too.

[RitaOK]

Hammer hit nail, stormy. Cruz has elected to be pretty noisy about being evangelical. I never thought that would prove to be very helpful beyond the South, but that was a choice of action Cruz used, and Trump has sewn up the South, at the moment.

So, where does this go when we hit Florida? That is when the GOP usually strafe the beach with money bombs, and kill off the conservative, or the anti-Establishment front runner.

Florida and northward after that is up to Trump and Rubio.

The mood out there begs for Trump, not Rubio.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Which was the point all along.

A concept that I thought would be accessible for the masses...but evidently.....