Turkey is a NATO member. What does the US do if (when) Russia seeks revenge?
I have a very bad feeling about this.
We’ll see how united NATO really is. I suspect it won’t be. It shouldn’t be in this case.
Keep in mind that the NATO agreement has loopholes. I think one of them is that a member can’t provoke a fight, then activate the mutual defense clause when they get hit back.
Also recall that in 1982 there was a lot of disagreement about whether the UK could invoke NATO over the Falklands. Not a perfect analogy, especially since Thatcher decided not to invoke (accepting under the table assistance instead), but pretty close.
Even if Turkey invokes NATO it doesn’t mean they get to lead a war against Russia. The most likely outcome would be us moving anti-aircraft missile batteries and fighters into Turkey and telling the Russians to back off.