>> At this point, I think you have to say Cruz is the favorite to win Iowa
Huh?
I’m all in for Ted Cruz and I hope he *does* win Iowa. But *WHY* do you “have to say Cruz is the favorite” when Trump has NINE POINTS on him? Makes no sense, even if I’d like to believe it.
Rick Santorum won from 4th place in all the polling.
You are right. It makes no sense at all.
Exactly what I was thinking-— Trump would be crazy to criticize Cruz— They agree on most things... But to read the poll numbers and then claim that Cruz has to be seen as the favorite immediately loses all of the author’s credibility and turns him into a laughingstock..
Don’t forget that Lowry has made National Review a RINO mouthpiece.
A favorite in a football game or in politics means little. To be fair, it is really an unknown whether Iowa Trump supporters will actually show up and spend some time or whether they just relish his celebrity. Cruz supporters are much more likely to be previous caucus attendees and know how to follow through.
Someone like Lowry (who wants business as usual), and even others more thoughtful, could legitimately see Cruz as a slight Iowa favorite from this far away.
Lowry is talking about an idea similar to the Bradley or Shy Tory effect. Basically, certain people tell pollsters what is socially acceptable, but then vote differently when they have to make the final decision.
In the case of Trump, however, the idea is that a lot of people want to upset the status quo by giving Trump a lot of support in public, but when they get into the voting booth they will realize that he may not be everything they want and will pull the lever for someone else.
Part of that might be wishful thinking, but part of it is seen in the polling that shows that a sizable number of Trump supporters say they could still change their mind.
Cruz has a very effective and well motivated ground team in Iowa. He may draw a lot more caucus goers than anticipated if Trump is viewed as unacceptable to many supporters of other candidates and there is a last minute move to consolidate behind a single candidate to stop Trump.
If Trump has hit a solid cap of 30 to 35% of likely voters, Cruz still has room to swing by. If Trump’s numbers start solidifying in the uppers 30s to 40s by the end of December, there will be little chance of anyone stopping him.
The answer why they are saying Cruz is the favorite is that even NRO wants to knock off Trump. Once they do that, they will attempt to shred Cruz. The strategy is so clumsy that anyone can see it coming.