If Cruz wins Iowa, it will quickly become a two man race everywhere. I doubt Cruz wins New Hampshire but I expect him to pull ahead of Trump throughout the South. Then I expect Trump to crash his own campaign since he seems to lose it when he faces any serious threat to his winning the election.
The South is going to go with Trump. Cruz has a chance in Iowa and Texas. I would imagine that’s about it. He’s polling in most states at about 7-8.5%. Catching Trump is a long shot. I expect it to continue as a 3 man race with Trump in the lead and Rubio and Cruz behind him and out of the MOE.
It will tighten as others drop out but lets just say that on election eve in FL Trump is only 3 pts ahead of Cruz. Who will win? Trump of course and that’s how its going to go. Or it might be Trump ahead of Rubio by 3 pts and ahead of Cruz by 4 pts. Same deal. He does not have to maintain a 20 pt lead.