They don’t have a “strong” GOPe candidate,where would they get a third party one?,Walmart.
Doesn’t have to be GOPe, in fact a conservative could do more damage to Trump...just like if Biden ran Third Party, he’d split Hillary’s vote. But then the Dems would never let that happen...
“They don’t have a “strong” GOPe candidate, where would they get a third party one?’ Walmart.”
They don’t need a strong GOPe candidate. They need a spoiler who can draw 3-5% of the vote in just a few critical states.
The three two Perot third party candidacies in 1992 and 1996 swang the 1992 and 1996 elections to the Dems. In 2000 the third party candidacy of Nader cost Gore a few thousand votes in Florida and Florida’s electoral votes in an extremely tight election. If Nader’s Florida votes had been cast for Gore, the Florida vote in 2000 would have been a Gore win on election night and there would have been no hanging chad recount or Supreme Court case.
Due to the polarization of the country, it only takes a small swing of a 2-3% to affect the national results. As the 2000 election demonstrated a few thousand votes in a key state with significant electoral votes can be the determining factor.
Hillary will have the large urban states locked up, even Trump’s home state of NY. Consider if the GOPe runs Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich third party against Trump. If either took 5% of the total Florida vote from Trump in Florida, Trump would lose Florida and its electoral votes. Third party gets 5% in Florida along with 2 or 3 of the following states and Hillary goes to bed early election night with a big smile on her face: North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri. In reality, giving Florida or Ohio alone to Hillary is probably sufficient to determine the national election which makes a Jeb, Rubio or Kasich third party run compelling if you want to cost Trump the election. Remember the goal here is not to win, it is to play spoiler.
Consider if Republicans make up 30% of the electorate and 20% of Republicans are hard core moderate to left and hate the right wing of the party. That 20% equates to 6% of the total electorate, before addressing those moderate independent voters who might be anti Trump or Cruz and willing to vote third party moderate. These potential 3rd party independents represent another 3-5% of the voters in most stated. If the third part spoiler candidate can get half of the 9-11% of moderate GOP and independent vote every swing state goes to Hillary on election night as well as a few normally GOP states.
By now Jeb and his family know he lacks the personality to win a national election. The Bush family is close personally to the Clinton family. If the behind the scenes donors and power brokers in the GOP decide a Hillary presidency is preferable to Trump or Cruz, Jeb will run and play spoiler in Florida and a couple of other targeted states. If Jeb won’t run, Kasich may be recruited to play spoiler in Ohio and ensure a couple of potential swing states (Pennsylvania, Virginia) stay in the Dem camp. I think Rubio is less likely to go 3rd party due to his age. Whoever runs third party is certainly killing their chances of being the GOP nominee in 2020. However they are also locking in some very lucrative payoffs in the form of corporate board assignments and positions with prestigious law and lobbying firms.
Interesting that the numbers work the same for the Dems. Run Sanders third party and Hillary almost certainly loses. Sanders wins 3-5% of the vote and Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida and Minnesota all go GOP.
Does the GOPe hate conservatives enough to throw the election if Trump or Cruz is the nominee? Will Jeb, Rubio, or Kasich exchange their presidential hopes in the future to play spoiler for the party elites? Stay tuned.
I don’t believe Sanders will run 3rd party because he can wield more power and influence in the Senate during a Hillary administration than he can as an ostracized spoiler in a Trump or Cruz administration. As a leftist ideologue, payoffs in the form of corporate board seats or head of a think tank don’t interest him. A cabinet position in a Hillary administration or promise of a coveted Senate committee chairmanship when the Dems retake the Senate would likely be enough to keep him on the reservation. After all he saw that Nader became a dead man in the progressive world after Gore’s 2000 loss to Bush. Sanders is now a national figure. He won’t give up his new status to deny Hillary the election through a third party run.