Posted on 11/12/2015 5:41:36 AM PST by Jed Eckert
The sun has become problematic of late, or rather the eco-nazis are just now becoming persuaded. It appears to be interfering with Global Warming. Dear Leader will set it all straight.
Transformers? Switch stations? Insulators?
I read on an energy web site a while back that transformers were the biggest concern. If a good chunk of the grid blows transformers, there were nowhere near enough in reserve to replace all. They were thinking 6 months to 1 year to catch up, whether from foreign sources or new manufacture here in the US. That info was about 3 years ago. Don't know about the present inventory.
HOOWAAAAAAYYYY! Buckwheat is going to put out the sun.
I hope it works out better than that red line in crayon thingy.
:-)
As they said in the article, one of the biggest problems we have is that we have no idea what the potential magnitude could be. The only reason we even know about the Carrington event is because we’d installed telegraph wires in a significant portion of the country. Prior to that, even the worst of these storms would have no impact to human beings that we know of.
It would be interesting to see if there are any other reports of equatorial aurora in history. That might give us an idea of approximately how frequent they are. Trouble would be locating such records and correlating them. Equatorial folk aren’t particularly familiar with aurora, so they might not all describe them as something we’d recognise. I wonder if there are any Roman reports of same.
Correct. It would probably be much more than just a year. I do not believe that the really big transformers are even manufactured in the United States. Those are almost always one-off jobs custom built for an application. What would happen if suddenly we needed to replace about half or even just a quarter of those all at once? The backlog would be extensive. It might be a big enough job that it would prompt some domestic manufacturer to enter the market. I don't know what kind of capital investment it would take to bring a manufacturer up to speed on it.
But knowing is only half the battle, just ask GI-JOE, or the modern politically correct version GI-JOSEPHINE.
Have you seen the movie?........................
Uh, no I haven't, having seen every facial expression Cage has, all two of them and all his vocal range, both of them, I don't really have much interest.
It’s a really good sci-fi genre movie. The premise is that a girl in the 1950’s had a premonition that the Earth was going to be destroyed in the early 21st century by a solar flare .....................
Okay, Okay, you convinced me there is more to it than Cages two facial expressions, I’ll look it up. ; )
Yes, he actually has THREE!.......................
Ever wonder how Cage got into acting?..............His uncle is Francis Ford Coppola...................
GE no longer makes any large substation or step-up/step-down transformers in the US. They are manufactured in Mexico, Europe and China.
Westinghouse has the capability to build in the US and overseas.
Siemens and ABB are built in Europe (Germany and Austria) and China.
Waukesha (SPX) still design and manufacture utility scale transformers here in the US.
These are transformers everyone sees at the large switch yards located everywhere.
Almost without exception, every generator has GSU’s ((generator step up transformers) They convert 4Kv-20Kv from the generator unit to utility voltages 138Kv-745Kv. You can bet that those would need to be rewound or replaced.
The knowledge base is still here to build these transformers, but if it happens tomorrow (CME hitting North America) then we would be talking several years or more to bring the capability back online to produce them in the quantities needed.
Then there’s the smaller distribution transformers, HV breakers, protection systems etc
Dangit!, you mean I missed one? I’m just kidding, there are some movies I actually have enjoyed that Cage was in, I really liked a movie he did called “Drive Angry”, so bad it was good!
That’s all well and good except that after this year we will be entering a Maunder Minimum with little solar activity. This minimum is expected to produce a mini ice age that could last 20 plus years.
Unfortunately, one of the insulating fluids used in the big transformers (including the ones up on the power pole) was PCB. Nasty stuff. Its use was banned by the Feds around '79-'80. Not sure what they use these days but I suspect whatever it is is probably not worth the effort or expense to jump through the EPA hoops. Hence the "Let somebody else make them" attitude. We do still have a few manufacturers of big transformers but as you stated they don't keep them on the shelf in stock. Build as needed.
Yeah, that one was goofy................Drive like Hell, you’ll get there..................
Yup. There were some articles published about this in the wake of the attack on some electrical stations in CA a while back.
If something like a CME were to happen, and we had an American president, rather than a Halfrican one, you can bet that the EPA would be waiving some of the regs in order to get the power back on line. That would help a little, but not much, because as you said the capacity simply isn't there anymore. It would require some significant tooling and time even of some industrialists were given carte blache to "make it happen, any way you can".
I figure large parts of the US would be without significant power for about 2 years. This would destroy our nation completely, what with JIT inventory practices we have for everything from consumer goods to food. After 3 weeks without power, you'd be seeing a zombie apocalypse situation spreading out from the large cities.
Consider the amount of power it took to fry even the rather primitive telegraph lines of the day in the mid-1800s, and how much more delicate a lot of really important infrastructure is today, and you're looking at something I'd rather not be involved in.
Basically you are correct. However, many scientists estimate the Maunder Minimum to begin around 2020, if at all.
Bottom line: they don't really know. We'll just have to be surprised.
There are several components of EMP. A geomagnetic storm caused by the Sun will produce an E3 pulse component, which induces huge currents in the electrical grid affecting anything connected to it. Unplugged devices will more or less be protected. Utility transformers and stations may be destroyed. Not all modern cars will be affected, many may still run. Again, it mostly affects stuff that is plugged into the grid. If transformers blow, devices plugged in down the line may or may not survive, depends on length of power lines and conductors.
We have more to worry about with an EMP nuclear bomb from enemies, than any effects of a solar storm. The former will cause mass death, the latter is survivable (outside of large cities).
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