Add up the poll #’s for the gOpE (Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie). The other non-outsider (Huck, Santorum, Paul, Jindal ...) votes will mostly go to an outsider not the gOpE. Rubio has very limited upside.
IMO a lot of the Carson vote will break for Rubio.
They’re the low-fo, “seems like a nice man”, voters.
Also, “outsider”, as opposed to conservative, voters are less likely to show up at the polls than more ideological voters.
I can support Trump or Cruz. Hard to say where most of the Carson votes will go but more for Cruz than Trump. Same for Paul though some will not vote.
Rubio will wind up with most of the GOPe voters from Bush, Fiorina, Christie, Kasich.
My fear is still the GOPe strategy of either a GOPe win outright in the later primaries or it going to the convention and them stealing the nomination for Rubio or perish the thought bring in Romney as the “compromise” candidate.