[iowamark]

National polls do not mean too much now and will certainly change after the first primaries in February.

[nopardons]

True, but Trump is also leading in the state polls.

[rrrod]

worth repeating “National polls do not mean too much now and will certainly change after the first primaries in February.”

State by state...primaries count. Due to NC moving their primary up they are a bit more important but the most important primary up soon is Florida. Bush is doing horrible here but...BUT the Florida GOP is notoriously corrupt and voters must be vigilant. Florida is a closed and winner take all primary state.

[LS]

Sigh. When Trump falls behind by even a point national polls are everything (even when he is up in almost all state polls). When he is up in national polls, only the IA stare poll is important. And when he leads in both, a weird NC poll is all that matters. Sheesh.

Simple fact is that with this incredible consistence (leading in more than 90% of state AND national polls for four months) Trump is clearly the leader.

You can rightly say "Kentucky," but that was about a half dozen polls over two months.

What the anti-Trump people ignore completely are three daily rolling polls that have consistently put Trump at WELL over 30 (33,34,37). I personally think those are right. I also think that with 3-4 exceptions, Cruz is accurately placed at 8-9%.

[trebb]

National polls do not mean too much now and will certainly change after the first primaries in February.

I don't put a lot of reliance on these pols and am interested in the picture in March.

That said, Trump will likely still be high with Cruz gaining. The rest is a crap shoot.