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"illegal" scares the bad guys away every time !

Risk to reward factor is too great. There's no need for Trump to offer Carson a prize for getting out. He can just get Carson out and offer the prize anyway.

I'm not so sure that it is to Trump's advantage to get Carson out anyway. Carson's votes are likely to go to Cruz, but some will go to Huckabee (socon), Santorum (socon), Fiorina (outsider) and even Rubio (optimist). I don't Trump appealing to many Carson voters.

Trump of course wants to whittle Carson down into a manageable second place. Carson has a good enough Iowa org and base to still do very well there. There's no reason for Carson to get out. Cain took a lot more abuse, with more evidence of there being something there.