I’m not saying Obama did it, but now Putin has no choice but to go after ISIS. And at the same time, distracts Putiln from his Syria mission
The Russian Army is beg enough to multitask. Unfortunately we do it all the time. From what I understand, Vlad only had a fraction of his total forces in Syria.
A few Bears with fighter cover and lots of FAEs or Tactical nukes and ISIS is all but eliminated in a day. It’s simply a matter of will/determination. He has the will. He’s KGB. Life is meaningless to him.
“I am not saying Obama did it, but now Putin has no choice but to go after ISIS.”
No plan survives first contact with the enemy. No doubt the Russians considered a lot of possibilities in planning, but the fact that they could not prevent the destruction of their plane, shows that it was a surprise to them.
Politically, his domestic constituents will be calling for revenge - there is an emotional need now that is pressing, and he has to be the leader. The plan was to take out the “moderates” supported by the USA first, to make it a choice between Assad or ISIS in Syria, but that may be taken over by events.
It seems that the US has suddenly dropped the so-called “moderates in the NorthWest of Syria, and is shifting support to Kurdish groups big time (shifting the SOF trainers). Also, the Russian/Iranian/Assad alliance has gotten into major gunfights with ISIS around Aleppo (Shafira) and to break the ISIS siege on Kuerwis AirBase. So the conflict may have moved to the next phase of confronting ISIS anyway, before the planned destruction of the “moderates” was complete.
Now with the destruction of this plane full of Russian civilians (relatively wealthy, relatively elite citizens of Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg), machismo demands a strong response.
I agree that this is likely to bring more Russian heat on ISIS sooner.
Will they divert assets, detracting from their strategy, or add additional assets? That will matter - we will have to see.
There is a chance however,that ISIS was bluffing when they claimed responsibility, in which case the Russian counter strike may land in an unexpected direction (Like the Muslim Brotherhood, or the Saudis).
Another plane was just destroyed over Sudan with Russian links, so this may be more than a one off, and may cause even a bigger shift in response.
Popcorn for everyone.