If Trump were to drop out Carson still would not win the first state outside Iowa. Trump’s support would go to Cruz.
Yeah the bulk of his support would likely go to Cruz if Trump dropped out.
Solid empirical evidence that Trump takes Iowa. For example in Trump’s Burlington, IA rally, he had about 3,000 supporters who showed up for Trump’s rally that filled the biggest venue in Des Moines county. Santorum won that same county with only 388 caucus goers. I’d bet Trump gets well over 1,000 supporters who went to his rally. Trump is going to get 3 to 5 times more voters for him than Santorum in that moderately populated county located in South East, Iowa. Start multiplying that over the many IA counties and you’ll get the picture.
Another tidbit that Trump has a big advantage over his rivals in IA. Trump has his very own Air Force.
He has 3 helicopter and 2 jets. In the run up to the Iowa caucus, Trump will be crisscrossing the entire state of Iowa from one end to the other literally running rings around his opponents. Trump is going to win Iowa walking away.