>>Is “Who do you think will be the nominee?” the same as “Who are you for to be the nominee?”<<
Nope, not the same at all. For example, there are a lot of people who think Bush will be the nominee because he’s the choice of the establishment and would answer “Bush” to the first question, even though they want someone else, which is why Bush got, what, 8 or 9% in that poll.
At this point anyone who thinks Bush will be the eventual nominee in a poll has only a phone and no other means of communication.
I would give Trump a high percentage chance of being the nominee but a very low percentage chance that I would vote for him.