1) Trump continues to lead, and in many cases, lead big in most polls, both national and state;
2) Carson has made inroads in WI, TX, IA, and AZ. He also has scored in some national polls.
That is all we know for certain. They "why" is a mystery. He has done nothing policy wise or campaign wise (other than to suspend for a while on his book tour) that would account for these numbers. In most cases, as best I can tell, Trump hasn't lost much---maybe down 2-3 points---but rather it is Carson who has gained. The question then is, "from whom?"
Cruz remains fairly steady, gaining a point or two. Fiorina has dropped, so I guess we can say Carson must be getting her votes, and, as strange as it sounds, Carson apparently is picking up some of the lower tier voters and some of the Yeb voters.
Moreover, none of us (despite what some claim) REALLY know what's going on within the campaigns. We THINK Cruz is focusing heavily on IA; and we THINK Carson has all his eggs in the IA basket; but we also have seen Trump has an active on-the-ground presence there.
My guess is that however they are doing it, and to whatever extent they are successful, the GOPe is boosting Carson to knock down Trump. Then they will use Cruz to knock down Carson because Cruz is a "true conservative." Then when Trump and Carson are eliminated, they will quickly crush Cruz.
Now, that said, I think Trump and Cruz especially know this is the game. I don't know about Ben. And again, we know the two talked twice earlier in the campaign in NYC. Is a Pres/Veep deal, no matter which order, on the table? Who knows?
Are you kidding me? They will use Cruz to knock down Carson? They hate Cruz. (establishment folks).
I am going to save Medicare and Medicaid, Carson wants to abolish, and
failing candidate Gov. John Kasich doesn't have a clue - weak!— Donald
J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 31, 2015