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So far, Ryan seems a better sort than Boehner, but what matters most are the plays and formations and the political environment. As Speaker, Ryan will want as long a honeymoon as possible, and after that, he will try to rely on his majority whip and committee chairmen to do most of the heavy lifting and play bad cop when needed.

If Ryan (and we) are lucky, the 2016 elections will deliver a solid Republican President and Congress. If that occurs, Ryan will have an abundance of favors he can deliver and a diminished need of punishments. A burst of GOP reforms passing Congress and a successful GOP President will do much to aid Ryan and to help the Party recover its confidence and to build on success.

As it is, one of the reasons for the Congressional GOP's defeatist attitude is that immigration and demographic trends are strongly adverse to the GOP and seem poised to put it on the path to minority status and the country under rule by the Left -- permanently. Against such a future, most GOP House and Senate members have been hedging their bets and aiming to protect their reelection chances and any employment plans.

Trump's candidacy may change that, especially if he wins and is able to shut down the wave of immigration that threatens to destroy the country. With that at stake, most everything else is secondary.