Based on what set of facts do you conclude that?
Wanna know why we Conservatives keep getting our a**es handed to us? If we don’t like it, we just say it is not true.
If we keep it up we will stay on this slow train to extinction.
WAY too much head in the sand here.
I read the internals from a website - actually a twitter account page from a guy named Bill Miller. He dug into the internals of that poll. It was very informative.
I don’t like your post, therefore it can’t be true.
Actually, though, there are some reasons to at least be suspicious of the CBS/NYT poll.
1) It’s an outlier. Every other national poll that I’m aware of has Trump in the 30s and almost doubling Carson. Even at a 95% confidence level, this means that there’s a 1-in-20 chance that a poll could simply be out in the stratosphere somewhere, which that one may well have been.
2) The calculations being used in the poll were...odd. They said they had n=575 for the Republican portion of the poll, yet listed the MoE as 6% (in some places 7%), when in reality, the MoE would be around 4.1% for that sample size. At the very least, it lowers my confidence that the poll was “done right” in a technical sense, which could well reflect on the data. Garbage in, garbage out, and all that.