I remember back in 2012, I volunteered for the Romney campaign in the general election, and I was one of only two people that thought he was going to lose to Obama (the other being the guy in charge of the campaign office).
Everyone was talking about unskewed polls and so on, but the actual polls showed no evidence of skewing and showed Romney losing consistently in almost all of the swing states.
People made jokes to me saying that the Obama campaign office is across the street, maybe you ought to go there, but I simply believe in facing reality, even if it is not pleasant.
Carson is surging in the polls right now. This is happening in Iowa and nationally. The DM Register poll is considered the gold standard of Iowa polling, it has an incredible track record. Maybe it will be wrong this time, but Ann Seltzer, who runs it, is probably the best pollster in the country.
This is not some subjunctive opinion, but just look at the final polls she made in previous cycles and the results and one can easily see she is extremely accurate. I would add that she had Joni Ernst winning extremely big in 2014, and liberals might have said she was biased then, but then the votes came in and she was right again.
Sorry for the rant.