The crowds that Trump brings seems to dwarf Carson and all of the other candidates. So I’m not sure how accurate these are.
I learned in 2012 that crowds don’t mean you’re winning. Romney/Ryan drew massive crowds that last week and still got thumped.
I think these Iowa polls are accurate. Iowa GOP always votes for the Christian candidate and Carson has been working the megachurch vote for two years now.
Plus Carson had his own Trump moment two weeks ago noting he didn’t think a Muslim should be President. That doesn’t sit will with media elites but resonated.