Iowa Caucus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses
2012 - Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%),
2008 – Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%),
2004 - GW Bush unopposed
2000 – George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (31%),
1996 – Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%),
1992 – George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1988 – Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%),
1984 – Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
1980 – George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%),
1976 – Gerald Ford (45%) and Ronald Reagan (43%)
"Iowa's bad track record for picking GOP winners"
"In 2008, heralded as a banner year for turnout only 5.4 percent of eligible Iowans turned up at a GOP caucus site.
...
Because such a small proportion of Iowans choose to participate in the caucuses, those that do go represent a very distinct group. Republican caucus attendees tend to be more conservative and more religious than their counterparts in other early states, as well as nationally."
Which would explain Huckabee in 2012 and Carson now.
Thanks for the info.
Yes, in the last 10 Iowa caucus contests going back to 1976 and of the 7 contested caucus’ in this period. the eventual GOP nominee only prevailed in 3 of the 7 contested contests (1976, 1996 and 2000). In 4 of the 7 contested contests, the eventual GOP nominee did not win the Iowa caucus (1980, 1988, 2008 and 2012).
The incumbent GOP President ran unopposed in the Iowa caucus in 1984, 1992 and 2004.