Satellite image of Hurricane Patricia at 0347Z Friday, October 23, 2015 (11:47 pm EDT Thursday).
Posted on 10/23/2015 2:08:35 AM PDT by uglybiker
History is being made tonight in the Northeast Pacific as Hurricane Patricia churns about 200 miles off the coast of Mexico, south-southwest of Manzanillo. With its 11 pm EDT Thursday advisory, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Patricia to Category 5, with top sustained winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 924 millibars. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, including Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, with a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning eastward to Lazaro Cardenas. Update: Late Thursday night, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight captured some of the most extreme observations ever recorded in 70 years of reconnaissance activity. Based on flight-level winds of 179 knots (206 mph), NHC upgraded Patricia's strength at 12:30 am EDT Friday to 185 mph. The estimated surface pressure of 892 mb is the lowest on record for the Northeast Pacific, and it ranks #3 for the entire Western Hemisphere behind only Wilma (882 mb, on October 19, 2005) and Gilbert (888 mb, on September 13, 1988). A surface reading of 892 mb was recorded at Key West during the Labor Day hurricane (September 2, 1935).
Satellite image of Hurricane Patricia at 0347Z Friday, October 23, 2015 (11:47 pm EDT Thursday).
Visible satellite image of Hurricane Patricia close to nightfall, at 2345Z (7:45 pm EDT) Thursday, October 22. 2015. Image credit: NOAA and CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin.
(Excerpt) Read more at wunderground.com ...
wunderground is run by a global warming nazi. Jeff Masters and I did an email debate years ago. He’s fully behind Al Gore and his insanity.
Per NHS:
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 230834
TCDEP5
HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center’s
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.
Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.
The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia’s remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.
We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.
2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Also from NHS:
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 230833
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Punta San Telmo
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 200 mph (325
km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible today, but Patricia is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane through landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 880 mb (25.99 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
MIchoacan and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is expected to
produce significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where
the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Properly named! ... I’m a Patricia!
and
I’m a force to deal with.
A poster at storm2k says the last recon pass (prob. gets averaged in) showed 192 knots.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117656&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=700
Un-freaking-believable
I can’t believe that.
That’s basically a gigantic tornado.
Unheard of.
If ‘ol Trumpo is smart, he’ll organize a relief effort...
:) The politicians in Washington D.C. are going to have it pretty rough.... The cost of cocaine will skyrocket!!
Okay that was 192kt flight-level. It is always dropped about 10-20 for ground-level.
Another concern that I’m going to voice it here. What if this thing crosses Mexico and emerges into the Gulf to restrengthen?
I’m a force to deal with.
You got that right Onyx!
No, won’t happen. Too many high mountains, too much land.
Even the tiny island of Hispaniola deals devastating blows to tropical storms.
Its rare for storms to survive the trip across Nicaragua and then they have to be strong and moving quickly to do it.
My understanding is that the mountains in Mexico won't do it any favors.
Gonna get wet in Texas, though...
This is true. The moisture will make it. Texas and Louisiana are going to see a crapload of rain.
This is true. The moisture will make it. Texas and Louisiana are going to see a crapload of rain.
Yes. Heads up, fellow Texans. Stay safe. Although we can use some rain. Just stay safe.
A new one! A bit deal joins hugh and series.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-100.87,14.63,2048
Double click to zoom in, click and drag the globe to where you want to look.
Prayers UP!
That is one huge storm!
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