Posted on 10/19/2015 6:59:50 PM PDT by markomalley
This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party's nominee.
"The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win," noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. "I've heard that from everybody. I don't hear anybody saying he can't win the nomination anymore."
That doesn't mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party's likely nominee.
"Massive resistance," was the answer. "He's not a conservative."
Insiders have watched as Trump defied what many believed were immutable laws of the political universe. First they thought Trump wouldn't run. Then they thought voters wouldn't take a reality-TV star seriously. Then they thought gaffes would kill Trump as they had other candidates. None of that turned out as expected.
But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.
"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)
There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa 2,000 points with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court's Kelo decision on eminent domain.
"We primed the pump with our ads in Iowa," says Club president David McIntosh. "We did some polling afterward. The ads flipped Trump from first to second place among caucus-goers and put a dent in his approval rating."
McIntosh is looking for donors to fund an anti-Trump campaign that would hit hard in the month before voting begins. It might be a Club for Growth production, or it might be a combination of efforts. "There is no other group that has decided to do it," says McIntosh. "There are a large number of donors and political activists who want to do it."
The triggers for the anti-Trump onslaught would likely be: 1) if next month arrives with Trump still in the lead, and 2) if Trump begins airing his own ads. "Once that starts, you'll see a lot of people saying we've waited long enough," notes McIntosh.
While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.
The anti-Trump campaign will face several challenges. The biggest is the voters who support Trump. Conservative groups like the Club believe they can convince those voters that Trump is not a true conservative. Perhaps they can. But what if a large number of his voters are not wed to conservative orthodoxy as defined by Washington-based organizations?
The other problem is Trump himself. If he decides to spend serious money on his campaign and some GOP veterans still aren't convinced he will he can launch a serious counterpunch to any anti-Trump campaign.
And then there is the fact that Trump is improving as a candidate. Just look at Sunday's interview on "Fox News Sunday" in which he was sharp, focused, and forceful. A talented candidate who does something over and over again will get better at it. Trump is better than he was just a month ago, which is not good news for his opponents.
Some anti-Trump Republicans still harbor hope Trump will begin to fade all by himself. Yes, Trump, who has been atop the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for three months straight, has outlasted the various flavor-of-the-months from the 2012 GOP race. But opponents point out that Rudy Giuliani led the poll average for an incredibly long time four years earlier from February 2007 to January 2008 before sinking when voting actually began. Their hope is the same will happen to Trump.
It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn't apply.
Which makes it more likely that the anti-Trump forces will ultimately have to take it on themselves to go on the attack. Their core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads. But core beliefs have been cast aside repeatedly in this race. That might happen again.
What is his gun plan, please. I'd like to see a link if you have one. Thanks.
Exactly.
IIRC, the Club for Growth ran a million bucks worth of negative ads on Trump in Iowa and then conducted their own push poll showing Trump slipping (which poll has since been negated by other polls).
-— It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn’t apply. -—
I’m still hoping for Cruz, but I love how The Donald is shaking up the GOPe.
They’re crazy to think that Jeb will win if Trump goes down. He’ll still have to step over Carson, Rubio and Cruz.
It’s clear that Republicans don’t want another Bush.
“the wave riding his coat tails could be stunning.
With 34 Senate seats and all 435 Congressional on the down ballot, including further down, if just a swing of 25% is achieved, the change would be unthinkable.”
What I’m not seeing discussed is the down-ballot in the primaries. Trump voters are more likely to vote against all the incumbents on the ballot. The turnout for Trump could throw more RINOs out on primary day than anyone thought possible.
That doesn’t mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party’s likely nominee.
“Massive resistance,” was the answer. “He’s not a conservative.”
This is my opinion: I have come to like Trump because he is not ‘owned’ by the Chamber of Commerce or the GOPe. I voted for ‘conservatives’ only to have them ‘cave’ to the establishment or to the major donors that helped pay for their campaign.
Trump appears to be paying for most of his campaign as well as taking donations from the ‘small’ donors.
Their ads of ‘he is not a conservative’ won’t work simply because he seems to be more of a conservative than the establishment candidates. They are just too stupid to see that. Let them waste their money.
PROTECTING OUR SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
Donald J. Trump on the Right to Keep and Bear Arms
The Second Amendment to our Constitution is clear. The right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed upon. Period.
The Second Amendment guarantees a fundamental right that belongs to all law-abiding Americans. The Constitution doesnt create that right it ensures that the government cant take it away. Our Founding Fathers knew, and our Supreme Court has upheld, that the Second Amendments purpose is to guarantee our right to defend ourselves and our families. This is about self-defense, plain and simple.
Its been said that the Second Amendment is Americas first freedom. Thats because the Right to Keep and Bear Arms protects all our other rights. We are the only country in the world that has a Second Amendment. Protecting that freedom is imperative. Heres how we will do that:
Enforce The Laws On The Books
We need to get serious about prosecuting violent criminals. The Obama administrations record on that is abysmal. Violent crime in cities like Baltimore, Chicago and many others is out of control. Drug dealers and gang members are given a slap on the wrist and turned loose on the street. This needs to stop.
Several years ago there was a tremendous program in Richmond, Virginia called Project Exile. It said that if a violent felon uses a gun to commit a crime, you will be prosecuted in federal court and go to prison for five years no parole or early release. Obamas former Attorney General, Eric Holder, called that a cookie cutter program. Thats ridiculous. I call that program a success. Murders committed with guns in Richmond decreased by over 60% when Project Exile was in place in the first two years of the program alone, 350 armed felons were taken off the street.
Why does that matter to law-abiding gun owners? Because theyre the ones who anti-gun politicians and the media blame when criminals misuse guns. We need to bring back and expand programs like Project Exile and get gang members and drug dealers off the street. When we do, crime will go down and our cities and communities will be safer places to live.
Heres another important way to fight crime empower law-abiding gun owners to defend themselves. Law enforcement is great, they do a tremendous job, but they cant be everywhere all of the time. Our personal protection is ultimately up to us. Thats why Im a gun owner, thats why I have a concealed carry permit, and thats why tens of millions of Americans have concealed carry permits as well. Its just common sense. To make America great again, were going to go after criminals and put the law back on the side of the law-abiding.
Fix Our Broken Mental Health System
Lets be clear about this. Our mental health system is broken. It needs to be fixed. Too many politicians have ignored this problem for too long.
All of the tragic mass murders that occurred in the past several years have something in common there were red flags that were ignored. We cant allow that to continue. We need to expand treatment programs, because most people with mental health problems arent violent, they just need help. But for those who are violent, a danger to themselves or others, we need to get them off the street before they can terrorize our communities. This is just common sense.
And why does this matter to law-abiding gun owners? Once again, because they get blamed by anti-gun politicians, gun control groups and the media for the acts of deranged madmen. When one of these tragedies occurs, we can count on two things: one, that opponents of gun rights will immediately exploit it to push their political agenda; and two, that none of their so-called solutions would have prevented the tragedy in the first place. Theyve even admitted it.
We need real solutions to address real problems. Not grandstanding or political agendas.
Defend The Rights of Law-Abiding Gun Owners
GUN AND MAGAZINE BANS. Gun and magazine bans are a total failure. Thats been proven every time its been tried. Opponents of gun rights try to come up with scary sounding phrases like assault weapons, military-style weapons and high capacity magazines to confuse people. What theyre really talking about are popular semi-automatic rifles and standard magazines that are owned by tens of millions of Americans. Law-abiding people should be allowed to own the firearm of their choice. The government has no business dictating what types of firearms good, honest people are allowed to own.
BACKGROUND CHECKS. There has been a national background check system in place since 1998. Every time a person buys a gun from a federally licensed gun dealer which is the overwhelming majority of all gun purchases they go through a federal background check. Study after study has shown that very few criminals are stupid enough to try and pass a background check they get their guns from friends/family members or by stealing them. So the overwhelming majority of people who go through background checks are law-abiding gun owners. When the system was created, gun owners were promised that it would be instant, accurate and fair. Unfortunately, that isnt the case today. Too many states are failing to put criminal and mental health records into the system and it should go without saying that a systems only going to be as effective as the records that are put into it. What we need to do is fix the system we have and make it work as intended. What we dont need to do is expand a broken system.
NATIONAL RIGHT TO CARRY. The right of self-defense doesnt stop at the end of your driveway. Thats why I have a concealed carry permit and why tens of millions of Americans do too. That permit should be valid in all 50 states. A drivers license works in every state, so its common sense that a concealed carry permit should work in every state. If we can do that for driving which is a privilege, not a right then surely we can do that for concealed carry, which is a right, not a privilege.
MILITARY BASES AND RECRUITING CENTERS. Banning our military from carrying firearms on bases and at recruiting centers is ridiculous. We train our military how to safely and responsibly use firearms, but our current policies leave them defenseless. To make America great again, we need a strong military. To have a strong military, we need to allow them to defend themselves.
Well then under the agreement they are all supposed to support him. It's obvious that they aren't. What happens when one party fails to live up to an agreement?
I swear if Jesus himself campaigned by walking on water they'd be whining he didn't know how to swim.
Thanks! That looks good!
This describes the conservative view of Jeb to a T.
Byron York has been making a slow journey to understanding, judging from his writings. He’s not quite there yet, but he has developed a pretty good eye for the shenanigans of the GOPe where Trump is concerned.
Not a penny’s worth.
Let’s say I believe that statement just as much as I believe an RNC statement declaring that Obama Care will be repealed in 24 business hours!
Good
The south has their fair share GOPe too
Suz, as I said, the primaries for POTUS are long before those for down ballot posts. IN Florida, the filing deadline is the end of June and the Primary is in August. Plenty of time for the tails to grow for as many who want to catch it. I already know of a few people in my local area who have already laid plans.
Most excellent to hear.
I’ve said it elsewhere...
You won’t believe how ugly the GOPe is going to get trying to take out Trump..
It’s going to make people heads spin and ask why haven’t they fought this hard against Obama? If they had maybe they would have gotten some support.
The argument he isn’t conservative isn’t going to fly because they haven’t been conservative themselves they sell themselves as conservative and then govern as liberal light.
The establishment has made their bed, they have no one to blame but themselves. The uglier they get trying to take him down the higher his polls will go. But it will get ugly.
Exactly. The “he’s not conservative” won’t change people’s mind. They have voted for “conservatives” only to watch them roll over like lapdogs. Cruz is the only major republican I can name that I can say has consistently put up a fight.
Anyone attack on Trump as not conservative is easily countered by and what have any of these “conservatives” we have voted for done for us? Besides some lip service?
GOPe will not go down easy, but they are going down... And I guarantee any attack they launch will be easily countered and Trumps numbers will go up.
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