Posted on 10/19/2015 6:59:50 PM PDT by markomalley
This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party's nominee.
"The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win," noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. "I've heard that from everybody. I don't hear anybody saying he can't win the nomination anymore."
That doesn't mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party's likely nominee.
"Massive resistance," was the answer. "He's not a conservative."
Insiders have watched as Trump defied what many believed were immutable laws of the political universe. First they thought Trump wouldn't run. Then they thought voters wouldn't take a reality-TV star seriously. Then they thought gaffes would kill Trump as they had other candidates. None of that turned out as expected.
But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.
"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)
There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa — 2,000 points — with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court's Kelo decision on eminent domain.
"We primed the pump with our ads in Iowa," says Club president David McIntosh. "We did some polling afterward. The ads flipped Trump from first to second place among caucus-goers and put a dent in his approval rating."
McIntosh is looking for donors to fund an anti-Trump campaign that would hit hard in the month before voting begins. It might be a Club for Growth production, or it might be a combination of efforts. "There is no other group that has decided to do it," says McIntosh. "There are a large number of donors and political activists who want to do it."
The triggers for the anti-Trump onslaught would likely be: 1) if next month arrives with Trump still in the lead, and 2) if Trump begins airing his own ads. "Once that starts, you'll see a lot of people saying we've waited long enough," notes McIntosh.
While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.
The anti-Trump campaign will face several challenges. The biggest is the voters who support Trump. Conservative groups like the Club believe they can convince those voters that Trump is not a true conservative. Perhaps they can. But what if a large number of his voters are not wed to conservative orthodoxy as defined by Washington-based organizations?
The other problem is Trump himself. If he decides to spend serious money on his campaign — and some GOP veterans still aren't convinced he will — he can launch a serious counterpunch to any anti-Trump campaign.
And then there is the fact that Trump is improving as a candidate. Just look at Sunday's interview on "Fox News Sunday" in which he was sharp, focused, and forceful. A talented candidate who does something over and over again will get better at it. Trump is better than he was just a month ago, which is not good news for his opponents.
Some anti-Trump Republicans still harbor hope Trump will begin to fade all by himself. Yes, Trump, who has been atop the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for three months straight, has outlasted the various flavor-of-the-months from the 2012 GOP race. But opponents point out that Rudy Giuliani led the poll average for an incredibly long time four years earlier — from February 2007 to January 2008 — before sinking when voting actually began. Their hope is the same will happen to Trump.
It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada — all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn't apply.
Which makes it more likely that the anti-Trump forces will ultimately have to take it on themselves to go on the attack. Their core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads. But core beliefs have been cast aside repeatedly in this race. That might happen again.
from Alabama!!!!! He needs come clean in front of the Lord!
By all Parties...
They claim Bush and Rubio are conservatives...Conservatives don't appeal to me so much anymore...
Sorry, I thought your comment was tongue in cheek and thereby a nice write, of dry humor. On a serious note, the RNC has always played its neutral role since its conception, in all election cycles, and helps raise funds to spend where most needed to get a Republican elected— even bad ones, I suppose.
OTOH, we have to realize the chairman is always a hardworking trench digging Republican who has proven his loyalty to the party, is talented at fundraising and capable of working with the other National Committee members.
The RNC also has a staff of PR people. The Committee chairman and staff work hand in glove with the Republican agenda in Washington, DC, and at the moment we are all too cynical for our own good, about the quality of Mitch McConnell and John Boehner and the Establishment crowd running the Senate and the House under them.
These at the Capital are the people who get other lesser people hired and fired, who do the arm twisting necessary to impose their political will on the conservatives. It just isn’t a hard stretch to believe the RNC could be leaned on, if necessary, to strategize for getting rid of Trump in certain states, to cut his delegate count down, by fixing the state rules.
Remember the chaos Romney caused the Libertarians in certain states? He was able to use the RNC to reach down into states and fix new state rules to prohibit any risk of the Ron Paul delegates gaining a majority. Not sure there were any National finger prints visible, but the states where Rules changes were needed protect the Republican Party candidate of choice. Ron Paul was not that choice.
We will see those same nefarious rules used against Trump, because those rules remain on the books. (And, they can be changed further, to be tailor made to eliminate Trump delegates, this time, from gaining a majority.)
The real risk to the party would be their unfair, undemocratic treatment of any candidate. That could damage or destroy the party.
he has a reduced tax plan that is conservative.
he has more conservative positions than Yeb
They ABSOLUTELY DO work.
And Trump can run as many as they do.
And, their clients are essentially weaker and more vulnerable.
They know this.
Prepare for a winter of MAD.
I'll be surprised if ANY Republican survives it, but if one does, it'll be Trump.
If I remember correctly the RNC refused to give a dime or a lick of support to Alan Keyes when he ran against Obama for the Senate...
Yorks daddy was media in Birmingham
new to me
I’m getting real tired of the GOP and them that be... “taking down Trump”. LET THE PEOPLE SPEAK! We have spoken and we choose Trump, Carson and Cruz.
They didn’t listen to the people before Trump came on the scene .. and they are hell bent on ignoring us still. I’m real tired of this crap!
#1 - I am not a Trump supporter, I am a Cruz girl.
#2 - I am tired of them forcing me to defend Trump.
#3 - The establishment says, “He’s not a conservative.” Really???
Trump takedown: Panicked establishment readies for war against GOP front-runner
They are hell bent on losing and in the process want to take down this country along with them. There just is no limit to stupidity.
You forgot the 2 most important things, Doug. He loves America with all his heart and all these years- 25, 30 at least, he’s been watching our country slip further and further away, in agony. Donald Trump saw an ultimatum- do it yourself, because nobody else will, or accept that America will die. He couldn’t accept that. Obviously.
Trump panic ping
The RNC has been paid handsomely for an amnesty candidate.
The RNC plans to have amnesty signed long before Trum can take office, count on it.
These folks don’t even consider themselves to be the people.
They are just members of big money PAC’s and other big dollar organizations who have their own agenda for the country; and it ain’t our agenda.
They fail to remember where their big bucks come from, that source of money is ultimately US.
The CoC, Club for Growth, and all the others would do well to remember that most of us have long memories when it comes to getting screwed out of some thing we worked hard for.
If the Republican Party wants to remain a party of any influence at all they should think very hard about what path they want to follow here.
If the RNC and their crony organizations screw us in this election, there won’t be a Republican Party or an RNC in the next election.
Most people and pundits say a third party is just not possible, want to bet!
WOOHOO!!! Right to the side of you, djstex!!!
That won’t work for long...Trump had the Club for Growth for lunch, now he’ll have them for dinner.....stick a fork in Club, their done!!!
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