There is a cycle in the pricing of the various sources of animal protein. For beef, the length is something like eleven years. With prices as high as they are now, the breeders of beef cattle are encouraged to breed up still more cattle, in which instance they hold back all the heifers being born right now, and since one bull can service as many as fifty or more females, that is approximately the ratio right now. Now, a beef heifer is sexually mature about 18 months of age, and has a 9-month gestation period, so the first offspring would be born when the young cow is about 27 months of age. One calf per year, for a lifetime of producing calves maybe to age ten-twelve, then fertility problems start setting in, and the now mature female becomes the hamburger that makes McDonald’s wealthy, but meanwhile there are five or six offspring, some of which are male, and are turned into steers (about 52% of all live offspring are male), the remainder into the next generation’s breeding stock. From scarcity of breeding stock, there is now a glut, the price of beef falls, and the excess herd goes to kill, as there was no longer the incentive to breed more to expand the herd. Suddenly, the herd has gotten TOO small, and the inevitable rise in beef prices begins again, rekindling the cycle. Just about eleven years again.
Wait a while. Cheap cuts of beef will return. But since it is a perishable product, the window never lasts long.
Interesting article about Cattle Cycles.
http://www.agriculture.com/news/livestock/cattle-cycle-recd-prices-stretching_3-ar45813
~snip~
“The cattle cycle has, since the mid-1800s, been fairly predictable. Every eight years the trend reverses, usually driven by total herd numbers and ultimately, their corresponding market prices. Right now, we’re just about to the end of the latest eight-year period during which the U.S. herd has fallen by almost 4 million, or 11%. There are fewer calves out there, but female slaughter’s already started to decline, a surefire sign that herd expansion is on its way back. And why wouldn’t it be? Prices are at record levels. Expanding to capitalize on those prices just makes sense. So, does it all mean the herd is on its way back up?”