Sure it adds up, and it's also why the Air Force admits their strikes against ISIS haven't been as effective as they expected. They're just not coming clean and admitting that some small but significant portion of what they throw at ISIS is misdirected after drop/launch by our own equipment now in the hands of the target groups.
Of course, not all groups would have such equipment but you can bet that the more important to ISIS a given group is in an area the more likely they are to have the equipment and people to operate it.
The AF is expecting sitting ducks and the ducks aren't playing by AF rules.