Most C-130 mishaps on take-off are due to shifting internal loads, payload not secured or loose, upon rotation the payload shifts to the rear of the aircraft thereby moving the CG way aft and the aircraft pitches up and is unable to recover.
Too early to know for certain, but I’d be very surprised if it was lost due to hostile fire.
I would agree with your fundamentals, an old classmate was a 130 driver and she is one tough bird
Unfortunately the GTA misslesthey have are the latest shoulder fire ones which tilt the table, dependent of course on location of the shooter at the time of downing. As a follow on to your shifting cargo it could be that evasive action related to AA or GTA missles shifted it and caused a stall and crash...
Just postulating, but NO response from Gov on yay or nay, swept under the rug...
Watch and See, threads are unraveling...
Remember, there are over 20,000 shoulder launched missiles in the region due to Hillary and Obama. Simple search will find multiple reports of that:
“Free for all: Up to 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles stolen in Libya”- The Daily Caller By Neil Munro - The Daily Caller
September 27, 2011 3:54 PM”
C-130 on approach or take off is a sitting duck.
Obama’s legacy gets another notch?
Just sayin’
There is a youtube of the C17 (IIRC) that crashed leaving Bagram due to a load shift. Very dramatic, and the flight was doomed as soon as the shift happened.
The Herc is a solid performer, but crashes are not unknown.
The late night departure was due to fear of local Taliban and a possible shootdown attempt? Don’t know, but it will come out in the report if that was the case, and the cause of the crash as well.