Santorum wasn’t leading in the polls in Iowa either and ended up winning. Iowans don’t really decide until the last few days. And the support tends to roll out quickly in waves once the power players make their endorsements, largely leaning towards the strongest social conservative.
These primary polls taken this early are mostly smoke and mirrors. Almost everyone is undecided and the pollsters force them to pick the choice they’re “leaning to.”
Here is the last Iowa caucus results compared to an NYT poll taken 20 days before:
IOWA ACTUAL:
2012 - Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%), Ron Paul (21%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Rick Perry (10%), Michele Bachmann (5%), and Jon Huntsman (0.6%)
IOWA POLL 20 DAYS BEFORE:
2012 - Newt Gingrich (31%), Mitt Romney (17%), Ron Paul (16%), Rick Perry (11%), Michele Bachmann (9%), Rick Santorum (4%), and Jon Huntsman (1%)
Caucuses make you show up and face your neighbors. People can be appealed to personally to maximize one candidate over another, and many present already know who most others are supporting, so alliances can shift based on who else shows up.
In the Iowa past, there really wasn’t a standard procedure for the straw vote, so each caucus used their own method if they wished. The reason it wasn’t standardized is because it didn’t have any consequences, as delegates to the next (county and district) levels can’t be committed to any candidate anyway.
This next time, the procedure will be *somewhat* more monitored and standardized and the ‘winner’ will actually end up with at least some delegate votes at the national convention if there is an actual ballot fight.
So whatever you think of Iowans' uniqueness, it ain't happenein this time around. They are right in line with everyone else, and Cruz will, if lucky, come in fourth.