One more observation. If hell breaks loose in the ME, if Saudi Arabia is attacked, the Europeans will continue to by energy from the Russians. They don’t have a choice. As such, the invasion of Saudia Arabia and the ME may actually finance itself, since the price of oil is going to go up sharply, and suddenly.
Europe is already on its back economically. Tripling the price of energy makes it a lot less likely they will be able to spin up enough military force in a short period of time to counter the inevitable western push once the ME has been consolidated. While Russia is mopping up the ME, Europe will be diverting money it needs to re-arm into keeping the lights on. Iran/Russia runs the ME. India’s not an issue.
This is what happens when you back a petro-state like Russia up against a wall without a plan to completely finish it off. He’s got less than a year and his entire economy collapses. THIS IS WHY HE ORDERED HIS CULTURE OFF OF WESTERN PRODUCTS. ‘Learn to deal with what we make, because it isn’t going to be around much longer.’
If Russia takes Saudi Arabia, then between Iran and Russia, they control Europe AND the Middle East.
You don’t move this much hardware to deal with a civil war in Syria. You use the civil war in Syria, and ISIS as a causes belli for taking Saudi Arabia. Since most of the distance they have to move to get to SA is through Irsq.
350 miles across Syria, Less than 200 miles to cross the southern tip of Iraq (just passing through!) to avoid Jordan, and you are on the northern border of Saudi Arabia. It’s less than the distance from Washington State’s northern border to the southern border of Oregon.
The Iraqis could defend that border if they wanted to. If they bombed a path through it, then forget it.
And, if you are worried about the hearts and minds thing, don’t. This is Sunni v Shiite, with Iran aligned as an axis against the Sunnis.
If they Iraqis don’t agree, run over them with your tanks, Allah will give you a pass.
Anyway, this happens soon if it happens at all. It will also happen quickly. If the Russians use EMP to give the US something to deal with while it does all of this business, it would take about two years, and by then 90 percent of our population will have died of starvation or disease.
We won’t care what’s happening to Israel.
I too would like better, confirmable information about Russian force strength. You’re right- if they have an Army on the ground, then Syria is just a beachhead. They’d blow through ISIS like it wasn’t there and go after the Saudis.
Interestingly while digging for hard numbers, I’m seeing articles that indicate that some Russian troops are refusing orders to Syrian deployment, while understanding of the consequences of doing so.
Apparently in the Russian forces, a formally acknowledged combat deployment brings eligibility for death benefits for the widow. A combat deployment without formal acknowledgement and written orders does not.
I see a lot of this as Russia vs. Saudi Arabia over access to European energy markets. The Russians can block the pipeline to Europe if they control Syria. It would be a bold move to go after the Saudis militarily. I remember hearing that a lot of Saudi money went into propelling Obama into the Presidency. If he’s their sock puppet, AND if there’s that kind of Russian strength on the ground in Syria, then we risk a major war.
With global energy prices where they are, will blocking a pipeline be enough for Putin and Russia?
What are we prepared to do about it- the ultimate question in a worst-case scenario. More aptly- what is *this administration* prepared to do about it in it’s last months in office?