Posted on 09/23/2015 5:15:19 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Scott Walker’s exit from the White House race is disrupting the GOP contest, and many observers believe Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will be the biggest beneficiary.
Rubio and Walker were seen at the outset of the race as the candidates with the best shot at winning over the GOP’s conservative grassroots and then running strong in the general election.
But with the Wisconsin governor now out of the mix, suddenly a new group of supporters — and big-money donors — are up for grabs.
Rubio had already been showing signs of new strength in the wake of the second GOP debate last week, with a poll from CNN/ORC putting him at 11 percent support nationally — good enough for fourth place and a big improvement over the 3 percent he had registered in the same poll just two weeks before.
“Rubio is not putting himself front and center but he is ensuring that at each Republican debate he is well noticed as competent and well-studied,” said GOP consultant Ron Bonjean. “He is showing consistency with those performances.”
Another Republican strategist, David Payne, suggested that Rubio’s presence and demeanor make him primed to take advantage of Walker’s sudden departure.
“I think the folks who were supporting, or were considering supporting [Walker], will be looking for someone with poise and polish,” Payne said. “Marco Rubio has a lot of that poise and stylistic excellence, and is starting to capitalize on this moment.”
Still, the impact of Walker’s absence is hard to predict. The battle for the support of establishment Republicans, in particular, seems fluid.
Rubio’s polling bump comes at a time when former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the erstwhile frontrunner, appears stuck in neutral.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, another establishment contender, is performing reasonably strongly in New Hampshire but is mired in low single digits nationwide.
And while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was widely seen as having had a good night in the debate, it remains an open question whether his campaign can get out of the doldrums.
Any one of those candidates is also confronted with the reality that they need to overtake the trio of “outsiders” in the race: Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, none of whom has ever held elected office. Those three together command the support of 53 percent of GOP primary voters, according to the CNN/ORC poll.
Walker drew less than 1 percent support in that same poll, a finding that might well have helped push him from the race. That raises the question of how much — or how little — his departure will matter.
“When you are an asterisk in the polls that is not exactly a surge that is going to move to some other candidate,” said Tobe Berkovitz, a Boston University professor who specializes in political communications.
But the effect of the Wisconsin governor’s decision could depend on where his donors, staff and activists go. The campaigns of Bush, Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas all announced within 24 hours that some Walker supporters had come over to their camps.
Insiders suggest that the importance of organizational strength is often overlooked.
“The clear and present opportunity is with organizational folks, the folks who are precinct captains, chairman of relevant committees, donors and the like,” said Michael Steele, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee.
“A lot of people lose sight of what a presidential contest is all about,” Steele added. “It’s not about being the most ‘outside,’ it’s about organization. [There are] all these bright shining objects, whether it’s Donald Trump or Ben Carson, but meanwhile the Bush campaign, the Kasich campaign have been building up a network because they know this field is going to be whittled.”
Steele argued that Bush’s campaign machine makes him a formidable presence, whose chances are if anything understated because of media coverage of his stumbles.
Others suggested that Bush’s last name and his status as the early favorite have put a target on his back.
“If you want to say Donald Trump is held to the lowest standard, Bush is held to the highest standard,” Berkovitz said.
Even if that is so, however, many Republicans are underwhelmed by the former Florida governor’s performance to date.
“In the two debates that have occurred already, we’ve observed him showing stature and stability but not a lot of enthusiasm and action,” Payne said. “There is just sort of a lack of action.”
Many members of the GOP establishment are worried. The outsiders remain strong, they note, and there is no clear mainstream figure who appears ready to slay them.
“Every [establishment] candidate has assets but also liabilities,” said one such strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
“Rubio has been outstanding with his public speaking but lacks experience. Jeb has got mixed reviews. Kasich is more on the liberal end of the Republican spectrum and he runs the danger of becoming the Jon Huntsman of the pack.
“There is no silver bullet here.”
As a solid Scott Walker supporter, I do not see any candidate running for the nomination who represents or who speaks for me.
It's easy to see how someone can sit out an election.
And btw, I'm not Barb from Wisconsin. If I had been that caller to Rush yesterday I wouldn't have let him skate on the list of Trump positions that he and Hillary line up on - gun control, universal healthcare, imminent domain, higher taxes.....
As Scott Walker said, "Just because Trump says something, that doesn't make it true.
"Barbara" nailed it with this: ".. I want to know why, after all this time trying to get a real solid, proven conservative as president, would you ignore the real deal and help prop up a fake, phony conservative, that would be the Kardashian candidate, Donald Trump. And the real deal was Scott Walker."
Voting for someone because they excite the low-information voters holds no appeal for me. Voting for a liberal who knows how to push conservatives' buttons is political suicide.
This Cruz supporter would happily welcome you on board.
I was looking at Walker for a while, but Rubio was never my second choice to him. At the time it was between him and Cruz. So, Cruz is still my go-to guy.
I’d guess that more Walker people will choose Cruz rather than Rubio.
Walker would make a fine labor secretary at least while the department exists.
I agree, but I’d prefer he first run for the Wisconsin Senate. We need that senate seat held by a conservative. I’m glad Walker wasn’t savaged and ruined the way that Romney did with his opponents. We can only hope that Rick Perry is still viable for the US Senate after Cruz wins the presidency.
Yes, he will get everyone of the zero percent that supported Walker.
“Voting for someone because they excite the low-information voters holds no appeal for me.”
I support Trump, and I am definitely NOT a low information voter. I am not unique. Some people are so busy shouting about the lack of purity regarding Trump’s conservative credentials that they don’t listen to what he is saying. Every other Republican candidate is soft on amnesty, if not endorsing it. With amnesty, you can forget about your precious conservatism in this country. Forever. Finished, and with it, the country.
Walker shot himself in the foot because of his flip-flopping on some issues, like anchor babies. Obviously, he would make a better president than Obama about a thousand times over.
I listened to a strange conversation yesterday on Hannity. Jamie Dupre was saying what a windfall it was for other candidates, particularly Cruz, in money and supporters since Walker dropped out. Funny thing is, Walker dropped out because he had no money or supporters.
You are so correct. I call what is going on right now “Rob Ford” sydrome ... named after the former mayor of Toronto and all of his crazyness.
It seems a no-brainer to me, but I don’t know the appeal of Rubio. I think he’s good, but not outstanding.
If I were a battlefield commander preparing an efficiency report on the two, I’d top block Ted Cruz. He engages with the enemy. I’d center-of-mass Rubio because he won’t fight, disengages, stays safe. There are times, as Falstaff says, that discretion is the better part of valor, but these are times that try men’s souls, and the battle must be taken to the enemy.
Removing the anchor baby inducement of the foreign invaders is crucially important. From my POV, it’s also immanently conservative. [Citizenship in the USA should be more than a very pregnant Chinese woman flying to America, giving birth, and flying back to China.] This is just one item, but it is an example of Walker not coming across as solidly conservative.
I’d guess you would be right since Walker is much closer to a conservative than a RINO. Count me as one who had two nearly equally favorite candidates, Cruz and Walker.
Trump is running as a populist in the tradition of William Jennings Bryan. Very similar to how Perry ran successfully for Governor of Texas repeatedly (although Trump is more articulate).
Not a Trump supporter. Doesn't make my Top 100 list of qualified candidates. If it is choice between him and a Demonrat, I'll reluctantly cast my vote for Trump as a giant middle finger to the establishment.
As for Rush Limbaugh, what he's doing is promoting conservative principles by referring to or inviting as guests for interviews those presidential candidates who have espoused conservative principles. Note that Limbaugh is not endorsing anyone. However, if a candidate does something newsworthy for conservatism (e.g. on immigration), that's likely to get Rush's attention and a favorable mention at a minimum.
The problem with that, of course, is if Trump is playing everyone as a fool and plans to veer left if nominated.
Right now, that's the $64,000 question. I'd say it's 50/50 he pulls a Perry and stays with conservatism as a populist (but not out of principle).
The safer bet for conservatives would be Cruz. However, unless Cruz's ground game delivers in Iowa and the SEC Primary, there's no road to the nomination for him. Not a big fan of Cruz because of H-1B visas, the Corker Amendment, and the TPP/TPA fiasco. However, he's looking good in comparison to the others running.
Yes, door is open for Rubio to drop out as well. Good riddance to this back-stabbing amnesty lover. He can go to Cuba and Bush can go to Mexico.
This Walker supporter now supports Ted Cruz.
I would support Jindal over Rubio.
I would support Huckabee over Rubio.
All two or three of them?
CW, its time, come over to the dark side with us Trump supporters! Stay away from the Rubio the king of all amnesty!
“It’s easy to see how someone can sit out an election.”
I’m sure Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden will appreciate your non vote.
He also, correctly, did the same thing with Rubio.
I really think Walker's supporters will turn to Cruz.
Suggestions as to why Walker supporters should now pick up Rubio’s mantle. FWIW, I heard the Brett Bair interviw of Rubio last night, and Rubio was terrific. I still have questions about him, however, but what I saw last night was pretty good.
But, if Dick Morris thought that balding Scott Walker looked too young, what will he say about Marco Rubio? LOL.
FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.