Larry, the part missing from your analysis is what happens if the lesser talents drop out between now and super tuesday.
Trump doesn’t have those voters right now and he’s got to compete to get them over the next 4-5 months.
I think there is a very solid 25% Trump vote that isn’t going anywhere come hell or high water. But the other 75% is still up for grabs and may consolidate around someone else.
But I think if Carson were to leave today, 2/3 of his voters would go to Trump. If Cruz left, I think it would be the same---but Cruz won't leave because I'm convinced he and Trump have a deal, either Veep or Ag for Cruz.
The rest? Fiorina/Christie/Paul/etc. Trump probably gets half of them as soon as their person gets out. The other half? Hard to tell. In other words, I think you can make a pretty good case that if Carson goes, with Cruz's supporters, Trump is already over 50% GOP BEFORE even dipping into those who "have to be convinced."