“The question is can the majority coalesce behind an alternative or remain fractured.”
It could happen I guess. It hasn’t since 2000 but I suppose anything is possible.
I don’t know who will be the last one standing, but pretty confident that it’s not going to be Cruz.
I think there’s a better chance of it happening this time than in 2013. Trump’s negatives are even higher than Romney’s. The majority could coalesce around Cruz. I think the Donald doesn’t wear well and has a penchant for gaffs, and the debates could be particularly hard on him.
Lot’s of time left, it’s very early.
You’re also likely to see the 1996 scenario or some variant. You may remember Pat Buckanan did well in early primary, but as the field narrowed considerably, the supporters of those leaving did not go to Pat, and he quickly folded.
Those not for Trump now score high on the “won’t ever vote for Trump” scale. It’s a huge field now and will shrink quickly. So, Trump’s not likely to pick up many of the supporters of those who drop out.
Again, IMHO, Trump has peaked.