“So that’s my point, again: Trump has very little chance to improve to a winning share; others like Cruz do.”
Cruz isn’t going to improve enough.
If you’re for Cruz you’re already for him, if you’re not you’re not going to choose him as a second choice. There’s a poll floating around about that very thing somewhere.
It may be somebody else but probably if Trump implodes in the primary then it’ll be Jeb or Kasich.
The rest will end up taking turns being in the lead just like 2012 and in the end fall to the pre-chosen candidate.
I don't see how that's a sure statement.
If you’re for Cruz you’re already for him,
That's more true for Trump than Cruz. Based on knowns again. Everybody knows Trump; if you're for him, you're already for him. Cruz can still pick up folks who don't know him very well. So there can be additional folks who will be for Cruz, but not yet. Trump doesn't have that growth possibility
Remember, we still have some debates left too.
It may be somebody else but probably if Trump implodes in the primary then it’ll be Jeb or Kasich.
That's possible, but I see it more like 2012. The majority don't want Trump (Romney). The question is can the majority coalesce behind an alternative or remain fractured.