You are correct, of course, on a global scale.
There were a few instances in past history where you could walk across Long Island Sound. It has to stay below zero for a few weeks for that to be possible.
The local effects of an El Nino and a decreasing AMO will produce some interesting local effects, like lots of snow on the east coast.
Good observation. Things like el niño and AMO might provide a catalyst for local weather events, similar to the way warmer or cooler water in the Gulf affects hurricanes, but on the global scale, it’s the sun that overrides everything else.