jbush needs to fall in the primary states.
There is no national primary.
jbush needs to have a crisis of money.
It looks like he is having money problems already. Why do you think so many of his advisers are leaving. They are open to nothing but money. When they have trouble getting more money they are the first to know and the first rats to leave the sinking ship. If he still had lots of money coming in, they would stay around to simply bleed him dry. They have no souls.
I predict that Cruz has a better quarter than Bush and Carson does well also. I bet Trump got allot of unrequested money from lots of small donors like his $7 grandma.