[C. Edmund Wright]

Reagan’s first run was 76, and he was not wire to wire at all...so that comparison is not really valid because Reagan 80 was clearly extension of his 76 Campaign.

And W was far more establishment than not. Like I said, an establishment candidate can go wire to wire...in or close to the lead. An insurgent cannot. But 80, Reagan was no insurgent. He was clearly that in 76.

I’m giving it 5/95.

[Lakeshark]

I didn't pay attention until '80, that was my first vote, and one of the two I'm fully proud to have made.

This Trump phenomenon is so different than anything we've seen, I'm sticking with my 50/50. His debate performance was atrocious, and he rose in the polls. I've heard his speech given most recently in Michigan, he's really good and personable on the stump, and what he said was all spot on. He's formidable, he's the most media savvy, and the entire country wants someone tough as a counter to the overwhelmingly wussified progressive message, and that's his personna.

50/50

:-)

[Resettozero]

I’m giving it 5/95.

I realize you have the better sources for info regarding funding and Presidential campaign life expectancy.

So, since you give DT's campaign a 5/95 chance of (successful?) completion, even though he apparently has the funding and strong commitment to win, what are you willing to share here on FR to help us understand your giving such a low probability?