The upcoming debates might expose Trump to be a shallow opportunist who has diagnosed the problem but who has failed to rigorously think through his soundbite solutions. Most likely, the upcoming debates will not derail Trump's circus, it is still too early in the media cycle bubble, but it will begin the process.
I have also many times conjectured (rather than predicted) that Trump's numbers might continue to ascend but at a decelerating rate signaling that they were approaching a topping. These numbers indicate that that might well be the case.
CYA: one poll ain't enough to make clear judgments. We want to see a trend to do that. So far it looks like Trump is at best horizontal and perhaps declining and Cruz is ascending. Yes, I do indeed like those trends as one poster has suggested-but one dare not call them that yet.
I would argue that if the trends are real it signals that the folks are beginning to understand that Trump is not the only alternative to Jeb Bush and the Republican establishment. They are beginning to see Ted Cruz as that viable alternative without all of the baggage of Donald Trump. If so, that is the beginning of the end for Trump.
The decline of Jeb Bush, if that is a trend which continues and one might venture that there is a lot of evidence found in earlier polls to declare that a trend, it means that the need for Donald Trump as the only way to stop Jeb Bush and the Republican establishment is abating and will be seen to be abating. If Jeb Bush is no threat, conservatives need not take a risk with Donald Trump; Ted Cruz will do very nicely.
I say one more time, it's too early to tell but the first signs are encouraging.
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Since publishing the above reply early this morning a second poll has been released. This is a small poll (278 respondents) with a high margin of error but it is something. It says two things at least:
1. Trump remains constant-to my mind that means we have confirmation that the adrenaline shock no longer moves the system. Trump's rise appears to have ceased and topped. The implications of that for Trump's campaign are dire because of the factors set forth in the vanity sourced at the top of this reply.
2. Jeb Bush is descending. To my mind this means that Bush is becoming less of a factor and less of a reason for people to be worried about stopping him. Conservatives want to stop Bush because he is the personification of the Republican establishment. Many of us are desperate to stop the Republican establishment and some of us would support Trump to do so. The need to use Trump to stop Bush diminishes as Bush diminishes.
3. Cruz has continued to improve, although this new poll does not tell is by how much but at least it tends to confirm the earlier poll which shows Cruz up by eight and in second place at 13%.
This is significant because in reply after reply we are assured by Trump supporters that every time he manages another grotesquerie, his poll numbers only go up and therefore every outrage is not only justified but applauded. That game appears to be coming to an end at last.
We await more poll results to confirm a trend but the indications are growing stronger.
