[Buckeye McFrog]

Pat Caddell supposedly gave his final projection to Carter 4 days before the election, and he had nailed the actual totals to within 1/2 of 1%.

[Vigilanteman]

Caddell was very, very good. But so was Richard Wirthlin, Reagan's pollster. I took my college statistics class from a professor who had worked for Wirthlin. She told me that they had it within 1/3rd of 1%. The only big surprise was how close Carter came to winning Mississippi and South Carolina. I guess there was sort of a southern pride thing in effect which they hadn't counted on. OTOH, they hadn't expected to carry 5 of 6 New England states. So, while there were discrepancies within the various state polls, overall they were within 1/3rd of 1% nationally.

By 1984, the polling had gone so well, the campaign thought they even had an outside shot at Minnesota. That's why Reagan's final campaign stop on election eve was at the airport in Mankato, just in time to make the evening news. He came within 3,000 Minnesota votes of a 50 state sweep and probably could have pulled it off if he hadn't made helping candidates down ticket the priority.