Well, it could help to get the favored GOPe candidate (e.g., Jeb Bush) elected and keep Cruz safely out of the way, but yeah, the big game is if he ultimately goes third-party after having built up enough conservative-voter followers.
The hole in your theory is that Conservatives aren’t going to vote for the Republican just because he’s Republican this time.
The 2014 Midterms all but guaranteed that.