Posted on 07/21/2015 9:01:40 AM PDT by Drew68
Oh he is only that guy who used statistically modeling and analysis to predict 49 out of 50 states correctly in 2008 and 50 out of 50 states correctly in 2012.
He's a liberal, but good with statistics. In this case he is also right, Trump is a political troll. It's a perfect description of him actually.
We’ll know by Nov 14th.
That’s the last day to file for the TX R primary.
If Trump runs as an R in the primary, sore loser law keeps him out of the November election as an independent.
No R or I is going to win POTUS without TX.
One who called every state correctly in the last election.
Nate Silver totally “blew” the recent elections in Britain.
His track record of late is not impressive at all.
When the MSM is all-Trump then the MSM wants people to ignore the other candidates for a reason.
It gives me hope that he has started projecting and gone mad.........
Not that he was ever sane with his beliefs.
100% agree. 16 months is an eon away.
Nobody can predict the future. Not Karl Rove, not the media, not us. For the moment, Trump is doing something everyone on this forum ought to be happy with. Yes, some may worry that he may produce some kind of effect on the viability of one of the GOP candidates as a possible electoral winner. Some may worry that we will guarantee the election of HRC. HRC has, today, now, and from now to then, probably a 70% chance of success simply on electoral math. Those are daunting odds by any measure.
But the good news is that nobody can predict the future and the bad news is that nobody can predict the future. If we have only that single piece of wisdom, why get exercised over the possible effect of Trump since (if you agree with our inability to predict the future) we can’t predict either yea or nay? IOW, if we are smart enough to know that we cannot predict the future, then let us not become upset with our stipulated inability to predict the future! For the moment, I am delighted he is creating the chaos he is. Is he creating any less chaos than 0bama himself? I say no, we need more. If Trump is producing a “crisis”, I say let’s not let it go to waste.
The left has made tremendous strides discombobulating Conservative thinking. Let’s let it flow the other way. They have no principles other than the destruction of the US. Suppose they get derailed from their intent. Would that be a bad thing? My belief is, as a strategic matter, in an environment of chaos——PROVIDED both sides are in equivalent chaos-—those with the principles have better odds of success. Thus, if you buy that equation, Trump is having a BETTER effect than ANY other candidate because he is simply refusing to play the left’s game and he is driving them batty. Good. Am I saying “screw principles”? For now, damned right I am.
Silver's analysis is only as good as the polling data he uses and all the pollsters blew it big time in the U.K. last election.
He describes Hillary to a T.
To a leftist, a Troll is anyone who disagrees with him.
Thanks Nate now get lost.
Just keep in mind that Luntz’s numbers and results are pretty much the flip side of same coin as Silver’s
Luntz says people like Trump because he’s honest, straight-talking and unaffraid to speak his mind.
Which serves to both garner support AND tick off people who see those things (particularly from people they disagree with) as Trolls.
TRUMP=TRUTH
Here is the problem. You have 2 political analysts who come to conclusions about the electorate in two completely different ways. Silver was almost perfect in 2008 and absolutely perfect in 2012 using his method, Luntz comes to conclusions about populations of voters using these focus groups and his results rarely seem to match up with how the public actually cast ballots.
I honestly think Luntz is just making it up as he goes along, though I will give him credit for trying to get candidates on our side to understand how crucial language is and framing issues with the right words.
Silver is far more accurate. Though in this case, this is mostly just an opinion piece so I wouldn’t give it too much weight.
Trump is a troll though. He is very likely to run indie in my opinion and help Hillary win the the White House for the Clinton’s. And I’m not sure “the Donald” cares considering all his donations to Hillary, having her to his 3rd wedding, etc, etc.
He won't run if Cruz is the nominee, he will if Yeb! is the nominee, so be it. Not like there's any difference between Yeb or Hillary anyway.
Is Nate Silver gay?
When a “statistician” get political it blinds their insight. Nate Silver is an extreme left-winger. He would claim God himself a loser.
Such a silly thing to say. I don't want another Bush either, but good grief there is a world of difference between Jeb and Hillary. With Jeb the worst case scenario is mostly that he does nothing - doesn't advance a conservative agenda but also doesn't outrage us daily with some new executive action or administrative decree. With Hillary we will get those things regularly just as we do with Obama.
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