TRUMAN IS SELECTED TO PRESIDE AS BIG THREE CONFERENCE OPENS; FLEET STILL HAMMERS AT HONSHU (7/18/45)

Microfilm-New York Times archives, Monterey Public Library | 7/18/45 | Raymond Daniell, Pertinax, Dana Adams Schmidt, Harold Callender, W.H. Lawrence, George E. Jones

[colorado tanker]

Intelligence was learning of the large troop build up on Kyushu but did not learn the full scope. MacArthur was dismissive of the problem. The Navy, however, grew increasingly alarmed. I want to think that if the bombs weren't dropped and Olympic was going forward that at some point it would have been postponed and the invasion force reinforced.

Olympic as planned could have been a disaster with a lot of Boomers not being born.

[colorado tanker]

Ladislas Farago was the author of the Patton biography on which the movie was largely based. I did not know he was with Naval Intelligence during WWII. According to Wiki he got that assignment because as a Hungarian he was technically an enemy alien and could not join the U.S. military. For similar reasons the Navy assigned him to the Pacific theater.

It is interesting that there was so much support among the American leadership to allow the Japanese to "unconditionally" surrender, but keep the monarchy and allow Hirohito to stay on the throne. But, as Toland makes clear, the Japanese leadership was not yet ready to accept those terms even if offered.

[henkster]

I could see Olympic bogging down into something like Normandy, only worse. There was no open country to break out, and no strategic manuver like Falaise. It would have been hard brutal slogging with a high butcher’s bill.

While the Japanese were going to defend fanatically, they were short of supplies, particularly in terms of artillery ammunition. And they weren’t going to get any more. The Japanese were fighting with whatever they had on hand.

[colorado tanker]

I guess the $64,000 question was if Olympic descended into the mother of all campaigns of attrition, would the American people become "war weary" as the Japanese leadership hoped and demand we give them terms?

I tend to think not. The Japanese started the war so far as Americans were concerned and we were going to finish it. Also, we had the example of Germany, to which we had given terms to end WWI and then had to fight a round two with them 20 years later. Plus the Russians would have entered and would have been preparing to invade from the north as we invaded from the south. Add the supply/food problems and it would have been too much for the Japanese to continue to fight a war of attrition.

I don't know if this question is a violation of henkster's law or not. It assumes the atomic bomb(s) didn't work when in fact it worked very well. It seems Marshall was prepared to use it for tactical bombing on Kyushu if using it for strategic bombing did not force a surrender. The biggest problem from that would be to expose our troops to radiation poisoning that the scientists did not yet understand very well.