| Month | Ronald Reagan (R) % | Jimmy Carter (D) % | John B. Anderson (I) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 1979/January 1980 | 33% | 62% | |
| February/March | 31% | 60% | |
| 33% | 58% | ||
| 34% | 40% | 21% | |
| April/May | 34% | 41% | 18% |
| 32% | 38% | 21% | |
| 32% | 40% | 21% | |
| June/July | 32% | 39% | 21% |
| 33% | 35% | 24% | |
| 37% | 32% | 22% | |
| 37% | 34% | 21% | |
| August/September | 45% | 29% | 14% |
| 38% | 39% | 13% | |
| 39% | 39% | 14% | |
| October/November | 44% | 40% | 9% |
| 45% | 39% | 9% | |
| 47% | 44% | 8% | |
| Actual result | 51% | 41% | 7% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4% | -3% | -1% |
Incumbent President Jimmy Carter initially had a huge lead in the polls, due to the rally-around-the flag effect of the Iranian hostage crisis and the perceived extremism of Reagan. The continuing hostage crisis and the poor economy hurt Carter, and the prospect John B. Anderson running as an independent appealed to around 20% of Americans who saw Carter as a lesser evil to Reagan. As a result, Anderson took a third of Carter's support in the spring, but did not seem to hurt Reagan, despite Anderson being a Republican. Carter would never recover this loss of support, while Reagan would end up peeling around two-thirds of initial Anderson voters. This race remained close until near the end, when Reagan asked Americans if they were better off than they were four years ago. Afterwards Reagan managed to win a huge landslide victory in the general election.[15]
As evidenced in the 1980 election spreadsheet, the key is how the voters will be leaning after Labor Day. If Hillary is still wiping the floor with the GOP, then we have cause to worry.
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