My take is Obama is minimally involved. He hates foreign policy. He loves domestic policy which is mostly vote buying, wealth redistribution, and racial agitation. My take is the useless females who run the State Department are calling the shots here which is pure mixed up confusion plus enabling Iran to get the bomb because they hate Israel. Plus brain addled septuagenarian John Kerry who is pure glory seeker with zero principles. FUBARED TO THE MAX!!!
Your take is definitely one of the possibilities—he’s not Machiavelli, he’s a feckless idiot.
My basic view is that most things that could be conspiracy can be explained by accident, error, and incompetence. BUT—and it’s a big BUT—when there is a conspiracy, it often turns out to be worse than could have ever been imagined beforehand.