I don’t believe Greece will recover any time soon. It will take decades. By the time Greece would be able to rejoin the EU, the EU probably wont exist.
The entitlement socialist ideology has been ingrained in multiple generations. It will take new generations suffering misery & impoverishment to restore self responsibility to the populace. The greedy elite will see to that.
Tsipras & his fellow Leftists will never apologize & resign. They will have to be driven from power by the Greek people and/or the military. They will never improve the economy because they fundamentally don’t know how, & they have run out of other people’s money.
The result for the future will be rapid expiration of the old & sick, rampant crime, an exodus of hard working, responsible, law abiding Greeks to better financial climates, & greater government tyranny.
This article puts tourism as closer to 20% GDP.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL5N0ZD02O20150628?irpc=932
However, the article reveals the hidden cost of promoting tourism. Tax breaks on the already high VAT to the outer poorer islands are crical to the island populations survival above subsistence level with high energy costs being predominate.
Leaving the EU and going to the drachma will cause further flight of capital and brains, not a good prospect for growth of industries producing real goods.
And from the article one gets the sense that the island subsidies are as sacrosant as the pensions at age fifty.
What country wants its youth to be wait staff and tourist geehaw sellers while burdened with the mammoth pension burden.
The Greeks want socialism based on taking other peoples money. Well that well is about to become dry.
Socialism, not a country for old people, or anybody else for that matter.