76 percent identified as GOP/TEA or Dem... so 24 percent did not choose a party... the "independents" that basically decide every election.
If Cruz got 20 percent overall (0.20), and it was 35 percent of 18 percent TEA (0.063) plus 14 percent of 24 percent GOP (0.0336), and zero percent of 34 percent DEM (0.0)... that means that he is getting FORTY THREE percent of the Independents (.43 x .24 = the remaining 0.103)
Please triple-check my math and humiliate me if I am wrong here.
Q16. If the 2016 primary elections for President were held today, would you vote in the
Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or wouldn’t you vote in either primary?
1. Republican primary 47%
2. Democratic primary 33
3. Wouldn’t vote in a primary 11
4. Don’t know 10
Q17. [ASK IF Q16=1] If the 2016 Republican primary election for president were held today,
which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven’t you thought about it
enough to have an opinion? [Randomize 1-16]
(n=504, MOE is +/- 4.37%; MOE is +/- 4.75% when adjusted for weighting)
Q18. [ASK IF Q16=2] If the 2016 Democratic primary election for president were held today,
which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or haven’t you thought about it
enough to have an opinion? [Randomize 1-8]
(n=457, MOE is +/- 4.58%; MOE is +/- 5.27% when adjusted for weighting)
http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-0615-summary1.pdf
http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-0615-methodology.pdf