[Johnny Navarone]

Every election season people here brush off the polls as BS. And then when the polls turn out to be more or less correct, they scream "voter fraud!"

Exactly so. With rare exceptions, polls taken close to election time usually give a good indication of how an election will turn out.

[spintreebob]

Anyone who wants to discuss polls must read SIGNAL and NOISE by Nate Silver of 538. I disagree with a lot of what he says. His analysis sees only part of his topic.

Never-the-less, it is the best current book on the topic. And Nate Silver will be the most influential person to the 2016 pollsters and media.

If you consider Nate Silver the enemy, then get to know your enemy. If you consider him relatively objective all the more reason to get to know him. He is not objective. But he is smart and communicates his intelligence well.